NFL RedZone Previews, Part 1: Every Touchdown? From Every Game? Really?

The NFL’s television schedule doesn’t tell you everything about who’s expected to be good in a given season. The Cowboys and Steelers will always get plenty of games in prime time, because no matter what, they’re going to draw eyeballs.

Likewise, if a team isn’t on national TV a lot, it doesn’t mean they’re bad. The Bills are Buffalo’s premier sports franchise by about a million miles, but the Sabres still get more airtime nationally because they do big numbers, hockey-wise, while the Bills just don’t move the needle outside of western New York.

But if your team is only playing a game or two outside of the regular Sunday at 1 and 4 Eastern windows, yeah, odds are they stink. When NFL RedZone crowns about showing “every touchdown from every game,” there are some teams that are responsible for giving up a lot of those touchdowns.

These are those teams, in Part 1 of Deadspin’s season preview for RedZone fans: the teams that we Hansonheads will be seeing more than all the rest, as we see… Every Touchdown? From Every Game?

Non-RedZone games: 9/30 vs. Jaguars

Vegas O/U: 6.5 wins

Does that make sense? Yes, they’re not the worst team in the league, but they’re still pretty horrible.

Best fantasy player: RB Joe Mixon

Vibes: Hey, that guy was awesome in college! Yes, whether it’s Mixon, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, or Ja’Marr Chase, you’ve seen a lot of these players before, on Saturdays, in way more important games than they’ll ever play in Cincinnati. Hell, they’d all have been more relevant if they’d just gone and done a grad transfer year with the Bearcats. You don’t need to learn the names of any of the Bengals’ defensive players, you’ll just see them getting smoked a lot as RedZone shows everyone’s touchdowns against them.

TL;DR: They don’t suck as much because they have high-level skill players, but they still suck because they haven’t built a roster.

Non-RedZone games: 10/21 at Browns

Vegas O/U: 8.5 wins

Does that make sense? No, this team wants Drew Lock to be its starting quarterback. They also have Teddy Bridgewater, but it says something about where Bridgewater is at this point in his career that he’s not an easy choice over, again, Drew Lock. Even with an extra game on the schedule, who’s expecting this team to win four more than it did in 2020?

Best fantasy player: K Brandon McManus

Vibes: The Denver defense is pretty good, and they have 12 games in the 4:00 ET time slot, so you’ll see a good amount of them when the better late-window games are at commercial, or as they’re wrapping up as the last game before the RedZone touchdown montage. That’s too bad, because this is one of the most boring teams in the league, outside of receiver Jerry Jeudy, who unfortunately will be having balls thrown in his direction by either Lock or Bridgewater.

TL;DR: When do the Nuggets start again?

Non-RedZone games: 9/23 vs. Panthers

Vegas O/U: 4 wins

Does that make sense? Sure. It’s the lowest number in the league, and you’d be hard-pressed to get anyone to bet the under at 3 or 3.5. They’re gonna suck, but they also play the Jaguars twice, plus the Jets.

Best fantasy player: RB David Johnson

Vibes: Fucking terrible, because Deshaun Watson is still here for some reason. Nothing against new defensive coordinator Lovie Smith, but it says something that Texans assistant coach is now a career step that someone takes after being fired by the University of Illinois.

TL;DR: Here’s a link to “ Luv Ya Blue,” the story of the 1979 Oilers.

Non-RedZone games: 9/23 at Texans

Vegas O/U: 7.5 wins

Does that make sense? The last time Carolina won eight games was 2017. They’ve won five each of the last two seasons. It all depends on Sam Darnold being good and not whatever the hell he was with the Jets. Good news: the Panthers open against the Jets, so you’ve got to figure something like 450 yards, five TDs, and no picks for Darnold to get his season going.

Best fantasy player: RB Christian McCaffrey

Vibes: Every year, some team comes out of practically nowhere to become a contender, and opening with home games against the Jets and Saints, followed by a Houston-Dallas road swing? That’s a good way to become the surprise team of the league before absolutely crapping the bed at home against the Eagles, who absolutely live to fuck things up for everybody else. The NFC South tends toward unpredictability, but way too many things have to all go right for the Panthers in order for them to be That Team this year.

TL;DR: First-round pick Jaycee Horn, a cornerback from South Carolina, should fit right in, as he’s already used to being an outstanding player on a team that can put a scare into you but ultimately doesn’t have anywhere close to enough going on.

Non-RedZone games: 9/20 at Packers, 11/25 vs. Bears

Vegas O/U: 4.5 or 5 wins

Does that make sense? Yes, because unlike a lot of last year’s garbage teams, the Lions don’t have a particularly easy schedule, thanks to being in the NFC North and facing the entire NFC West and AFC North. The ceiling is probably 6-11, but also the ceiling is reachable because it’s only 6-11.

Best fantasy player: TE T.J. Hockenson

Vibes: The combination of a difficult schedule and a bad roster make things very challenging for Dan Campbell, because when you hire a weirdo to be your head coach, you need to show immediate signs that the weirdness works and everyone buys in. When you start 1-4, which seems extremely likely given the SF-GB-BAL-CHI-MIN start of the schedule, well, it very quickly becomes “this guy is a weirdo and we’re sick of dealing with this.” Also, the Rams went to a Super Bowl with Jared Goff, had a lot invested in him, and decided, nope, we’re not actually gonna win with him.

TL;DR: Decent candidate for the league’s worst record, while merely losing 10 games would represent wildly overperforming.

Non-RedZone games: 10/10 vs. Falcons (at London), 11/4 at Colts

Vegas O/U: 5.5 wins (Bet MGM), 6 at most other sites

Does that make sense? Sure. There’s a very real world where the Jets start 5-3 and wrap up the over in their Thursday night game in Indianapolis in Week 9. There’s also a very real world where the Jets start 0-8, because even though the schedule is easier, they’re still the Jets. Robert Saleh seems like he knows what he’s doing, which would be a massive upgrade at head coach from Adam Gase. They’re better than some teams with higher over/under lines, and that makes it tempting. There’s also “good lord, what was I thinking betting on the Jets?”

Best fantasy player: RB Michael Carter

Vibes: The Jets didn’t draft Trevor Lawrence because they screwed up their tank job, and they didn’t draft Justin Fields because they’re idiots, instead going for Sam Darnold lookalike Zach Wilson, who they have to hope isn’t Sam Darnold playalike Zach Wilson. The last time the Jets didn’t win at least seven games under a new head coach was when Rich Kotite went 3-13 in 1995. The idea here is that the first year won’t be Saleh’s high water mark, but also the very existence of the Jets is to take promising or already-established coaches and ground them into a fine paste.

TL;DR: They’ll still find new and exciting ways to lose, but maybe not quite so often.

Non-RedZone games: 9/30 at Bengals, 10/17 vs. Dolphins (at London)

Vegas O/U: 6.5 wins

Does that make sense? Ehhhh… sort of. The over is for people who will think Trevor Lawrence will be a superstar out of the gate and Urban Meyer is a genius. The under is for everyone else. But even with an easier schedule and as generous of a reading as one can give, it’s hard to see how, even if you’re bullish on the Jags, you’re finding seven wins.

Best fantasy player: WR D.J. Chark Jr.

Vibes: They had Tim Tebow in camp and had him play tight end during an actual preseason game. They have a coach with a history of bailing at a moment’s notice. Even the best rookie quarterback is still a rookie quarterback. You can see what the idea is behind all the stuff the Jaguars are doing, but there are a ton of also easily-visible pitfalls, and it’s kind of hard to be optimistic about the short term or the long term.

TL;DR: Not the worst team in the league anymore. Also not worth any serious attention.

Non-RedZone games: 9/27 at Cowboys, 10/14 at Buccaneers

Vegas O/U: 6.5 wins (most sites) or 7.5

Does that make sense? The Eagles were 4-11-1 last season, including four straight losses after their November bye in which they didn’t manage 20 points. Given that they also had a tie in Week 3 and tanked the hell out of the season finale by playing Nate Sudfeld at quarterback in the second half over Jalen Hurts, betting the under on 6.5 means that you expect them to lose at least as many games as they did in 2020, in a division that still stinks, with a full season of Hurts instead of Carson Wentz, and DeVonta Smith at wide receiver. At the same time, the Eagles exist to hurt anyone who believes in them, so maybe just don’t bet it.

Best fantasy player: WR DeVonta Smith

Vibes: An interesting note is that the Eagles don’t travel beyond New York or Washington after their Week 10 trip to Denver, hitting that 1:00 window on RedZone every week down the stretch. Scott Hanson loves to talk about “the witching hour” at 3:30, when wins become losses and losses become wins. The Eagles, a team that could just as easily start 3-0 as 0-3, are what that time of Sunday afternoon is all about. They could win the NFC East. They could get a top-5 draft pick. And it could be highly entertaining or absolute drudgery to watch them in action.

TL;DR: As Eagles teams go, this one seems extremely Eagles, and probably headed for 7-10.

Part 2