NFL RedZone Previews, Part 2: The Bathroom Breakers

One of the things that’s exciting about the NFL is that, with only 16 games — sorry, with only 17 games in a season, a couple of unexpected wins or losses can change the entire complexion of a season. A bad team can make the playoffs, while an otherwise good team can miss out because of a couple of bounces.

We get to see those bounces happen every Sunday afternoon on the RedZone channel, and teams with high hopes but not necessarily high expectations are there plenty, because they’re not getting a ton of time in the spotlight primetime games.

RedZone still will focus mostly on better games with better teams, but a couple of the middling sorts will wind up having big years because that’s how the NFL works. In the meantime, since those Actually Good teams are going to be the ones you’re most interested in following over the course of seven hours of commercial-free football, you, unlike Scott Hanson, will have the opportunity to get up off the couch when these teams are playing.

This is Part 2 of Deadspin’s season preview for RedZone fans... The Bathroom Breakers.

Non-RedZone games: 10/4 vs. Raiders, 11/21 vs. Steelers, 12/16 vs. Kansas City

Vegas O/U: 9.5 wins

Does that make sense? Unfortunately, yes. The Chargers have an alright team with a schedule that isn’t too challenging, especially with their run-in including both of their Broncos games, plus the Bengals, Giants, Raiders, and Texans — only Kansas City is a real challenge among the last seven games. Anywhere from 7-10 to 11-6 would be unsurprising.

Best fantasy player: QB Justin Herbert

Vibes: The talent is there to make you want to believe the Chargers are putting it together and can be that 11-win team that makes only its third playoff appearance since 2010. Brandon Staley has made the kind of meteoric rise that is only possible for a white man in football, becoming head coach of an NFL team just five years after he was defensive coordinator at Division III John Carroll. There will be a lot of fawning if the Chargers are good, and a lot of blame placed on other people if they’re not.

TL;DR: They’re not winning the AFC West, but Denver stinks, so it’s the Chargers or Raiders, and the Bolts have upside with a blossoming quarterback and new head coach.

Non-RedZone games: 10/11 at Ravens, 10/24 at 49ers, 11/4 vs. Jets, 12/25 at Cardinals

Vegas O/U: 8.5 wins

Does that make sense? The Colts have four games against the Jaguars and Texans, so the number can’t go that low, but the first half of Indianapolis’ schedule is brutal, and they could easily be 2-6 heading into a Thursday night game against the Jets — and Thursdays are notorious for weirdness. Do you really want to bet on a Carson Wentz team winning nine games?

Best fantasy player: RB Jonathan Taylor

Vibes: November 21, Colts at Bills. The game is introduced on CBS with clips of Frank Reich leading Buffalo’s historic comeback against the Houston Oilers in the playoffs three decades ago, tying it to the miracle that Reich now needs to engineer as Indianapolis’ coach to save the season. And then after they lose that game, the Colts go home and face Tom Brady. Blah.

TL;DR: Reich is on his fourth starting quarterback in as many years, and you won’t even blink if it becomes five in five years come 2022.

Non-RedZone games: 10/17 vs. Jaguars (at London), 11/11 vs. Ravens, 12/27 at Saints

Vegas O/U: 8.5 or 9.5 wins

Does that make sense? How much do you believe in Tua Tagovailoa? Miami is coming off a 10-win season, but Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t around anymore to save the day if Tagovailoa struggles. Can Jacoby Brissett play that role? Maybe. Brian Flores did a good job of managing a tough quarterback situation last year. A huge key? Not going 12 years between appearances in the top 10 in turnover ratio again.

Best fantasy player: K Jason Sanders

Vibes: There’s a lot of reason to believe that Miami will be an extremely fun team. There’s also a nagging feeling that Tagovailoa ain’t it, and the promise of last year’s growth will quickly turn to disappointment. Winning the division is a reasonable goal, but not necessarily a reasonable expectation.

TL;DR: The Dolphins haven’t been to the playoffs since 2016 and haven’t won a playoff game since 2000. Ending the first streak is definitely doable. The second one? Well, if you can do the first, there’s always a chance.

Non-RedZone games: 10/10 vs. Jets (at London), 11/18 vs. Patriots

Vegas O/U: 7.5 wins

Does that make sense? Take any back-to-back games on the Falcons’ schedule, and it really feels like they win one and lose one. That means either 9-8 or 8-9, which would be over. But then you have to factor in that they’ll assuredly Falcons a game or two, either on their own or with help from horrendous officiating, and that gets you somewhere between 6-10 and 8-9. So, yes, it makes sense, and no, you should not do a season-long Falcons bet unless you like pain.

Best fantasy player: WR Calvin Ridley

Vibes: Well, there’s no more Julio Jones, but that means there’s also no more Falcons wasting Julio Jones’ career. They were way more talented than a 4-12 team last year, but also had Dan Quinn coaching the first five games. Do we know anything about new coach Arthur Smith? We do not, and absolutely had to Google “Atlanta Falcons coach.” But the defensive coordinator is Dean Pees, and he always seems to do a good job because there’s been a lot of playoff games over the years where they’ve cut to a shot of him and everyone’s had a good laugh that this man’s name is Dean Pees.

TL;DR: Probably not gonna get a Dean Pees playoff appearance this year, but the NFC South can be weird. It feels wrong, but the Falcons look kind of averagely mediocre instead of shockingly good or bad?

Non-RedZone games: 9/16 vs. Giants, 11/29 vs. Seahawks, 12/26 at Dallas

Vegas O/U: 8.5 wins

Does that make sense? This over/under number is basically “Do you think the Football Team will win the NFC East?” Because if they hit the over, they will, and if they don’t… well, they still might, given that they were under .500 and finished first last season. If you like the over, just bet on the +260 division title line instead.

Best fantasy player: DEF Washington Football Team

Vibes: Awesome. They ditched the racial slur name and immediately went out and won a division title as Football Team, which seemed ludicrous at first, then grew on everybody. Just stay the Football Team and don’t ruin it by renaming the team Washington Defenders or whatever other generic bullshit options are on their possibilities list. Ron Rivera telling everyone to stop being dumb and just get vaccinated already is also great.

TL;DR: Dan Synder will absolutely fuck it all up somehow.

Non-RedZone games: 9/16 at Football Team, 11/1 at Kansas City, 11/22 at Buccaneers

Vegas O/U: 7 or 7.5 wins

Does that make sense? Heavens no, this team is terrible. Who’s responsible for that number? Is it because Saquon Barkley is back? They’ve sucked with him before. Is it because they signed Kenny Golladay? The Lions sucked with him. The coach is bad, the schedule is difficult, and the quarterback is still Daniel Jones.

Best fantasy player: RB Saquon Barkley

Vibes: Beat Tom Brady in two Super Bowls, nothing matters until 2030 at the earliest, and that’s good, because it’s going to take a long time to get anywhere close to another one. Also, John Mara can take his whining about players showing emotion on the field and shove it.

TL;DR: The offensive line projects to have three rookies. There’s a case to be made that Big Blue is moving in the right direction by focusing there. It still doesn’t mean this season is going to be anything worth watching.

Non-RedZone games: 10/3 vs. Buccaneers, 11/18 at Falcons, 12/6 at Bills

Vegas O/U: 9 or 9.5 wins

Does that make sense? As far as giving people something to bet on, yes. As any kind of prediction, no. The Patriots had double-digit wins every year from 2003-19 before going 7-9 last year. This over/under is a question of whether last year was a fluke as Bill Belichick adjusted to life without Tom Brady, or if it’s serious rebuild time in Foxboro.

Best fantasy player: TE Hunter Henry

Vibes: It wasn’t a question of if Mac Jones will become the starting quarterback, but when, and the answer was sooner than expected, as unvaccinated Cam Newton got cut at the end of the preseason. Belichick winding up with his guy for the next decade at the No. 15 pick because he had one bad year after Brady left… yeah, that tracks.

TL;DR: Hope you enjoyed a year without the Patriots in the playoffs. You might get another one this year. But they’re already on the way back up.

Non-RedZone games: 9/13 vs. Ravens, 10/4 at Chargers, 11/14 vs. Kansas City

Vegas O/U: 7 or 7.5 wins

Does that make sense? No. Where are there seven wins on this schedule, let alone eight? The Raiders only get to play the Broncos twice, and you know Denver is looking at one of those as a win. Even playing the dregs that are the NFC East… the Cowboys always win their Thanksgiving game, and the Eagles visit Vegas the week before the Raiders’ bye — a perfect situation to send the silver and black reeling for two weeks before they visit the Giants, another lousy team that isn’t so much of a pushover as to concede a 1:00 home game against a mediocre Western outfit.

Best fantasy player: TE Darren Waller

Vibes: The Raiders let Nathan Peterman get in a game at quarterback last year. The Raiders rolled into this year with Nathan Peterman on the depth chart, and getting a lot of preseason run. Marcus Mariota is the other guy on the depth chart behind Derek Carr, who has been remarkably durable in his career, and thank goodness for that. But also, Carr has had his two best seasons as a pro the last two years, and the Raiders have gone a combined 15-17. And the early schedule means that this could get real ugly, real fast.

TL;DR: The last time the Raiders had a top 10 defense in either yardage or scoring was 2006, a year when they went 2-14 because the offense was terrible. One of the last 19 seasons has resulted in a playoff appearance. It’s about to be one of the last 20.

Part 3