NFL Week 4 Betting Primer: Best Over/Under, Spread, Teaser, and Prop Bets

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Over/Under: 42

Sometimes digging through the week’s dirtiest, most disgusting matchups can yield the most fruitful results in the end.

There’s just no other proper way to describe this oncoming dumpster-burner between NFC Norris (forever known as such thanks to Chris Berman) division residents. The Lions look like the same ol’ perennial patsy, even under new “gritty” coach Dan Campbell, while the Bears appear to be regressing toward new lows.

Chicago certainly reached perhaps its lowest point possible last week, managing only 47 yards of offense total in an ugly defeat to the Browns. They comically wound up averaging 1.1 yards per play.

The jokes don’t end there. Whoever starts at QB this week — whether it be Andy Dalton or Justin Fields — will be a game-time call made by Matt Nagy, who is also refusing to reveal if he or offensive coordinator Bill Lazor will be calling plays.

What a disaster. But, even disasters can be fun to bet on when they help point to a desired result. And no matter who is lined up behind center, the Bears clearly are a work in progress that should endure more growing pains, especially if the rookie Fields gets another starting nod. How could he possibly be comfortable after being on the receiving end of nine sacks?

True, the Lions are the Lions, a constant joke in their own right, but to be fair, the defense has played respectable and would have taken down the mighty Ravens if not for an NFL record 66-yard field goal (!) that beat them at the buzzer.

Still, though, Detroit did hold Lamar Jackson and Co. to only 19 points after they dropped at least 27 on the scoreboard in seven straight regular season games dating back to last year. The Lions offense is turning into the issue.

And who didn’t see this coming? Jared Goff is now QB1 — not Matthew Stafford — and his cast of targets to throw to outside of T.J. Hockenson is simply putrid.

Now they must face arguably their stiffest test to date in Week 4. For all the problems and misery Chicago is currently experiencing, they do still have a strong D.

On top of everything, a considerable amount of rain is expected in the forecast at Soldier Field. Scattered thunderstorms, as they are being called, should only contribute to what is likely bad football.

Pick: UNDER 42 (-110)

Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys

Spread: Panthers +4.5/Cowboys -4.5

How ’bout them Cowboys? No need to look anywhere else after they delivered in our victorious spread bet on Monday evening.

What they delivered was a complete shellacking of the rival Eagles in the home opener. For the next matchup, they get to remain in Jerry’s World while once again drawing a minimal spread as the favorites.

Sure, Carolina is absolutely an upgrade as an opponent compared to Philadelphia, but are they really as good as their 3-0 record indicates? Those three wins came from beating the Jets, Saints and Texans.

Most importantly, Christian McCaffrey will be on the sidelines, making it all the more difficult to go into Dallas and pull off the upset. This Cowboys defense is not the same soft unit that they were a year ago.

The Panthers sport an impressive defense in their own right, something they were exhibiting in flashes throughout last season, but Dak Prescott might be as hot as any player on both sides of the ball right now. Though it’s only been three games, the Mississippi State product is engineering the highest passer rating of his career (110.1) while completing a stupendous 77.1 percent of all his throws.

Teams go on runs in sports all the time. Deciphering which of these two clubs is about to continue their’s is the key to nailing the winner in this spot. The Cowboys seem to be the more likelier and I’m buying a half-point just to be sure.

Pick: COWBOYS -4 (-120)

Bills -16.5 —> -3.5

Chiefs -6.5 —> +6.5

ARI-LAR O54.5 —> O41.5

Cardinals +4.5 —> +17.5

Veteran bettors reading this may instantly recognize a so-called cardinal sin here, and that’s how you should typically never cross through zero in a teaser proposition.

However, exceptions can be made. When it comes to Patrick Mahomes and his shocking 1-2 Chiefs, that’s exactly what we’re doing (going across zero), submerging from 6.5-point favorites to a 6.5-point underdog for this particular bet.

Listen, it’s Mahomes. He’s the class of pro football the last handful of years. And his team is in last place for the first time in the 26-year-old’s career. How do you think that is sitting with KC right now? Mahomes will undoubtedly be playing with a vengeance and all guns a-blazing Sunday.

You know the best part? They don’t even have to beat the garbage opponent that is next up on the schedule. Even if they somehow miraculously lose to an Eagles squad that just got ran out of Dallas on national television (again, highly unlikely), Kansas City can still lose by six or fewer.

As for the rest of this teaser, we’re going to include the one “gimme” on this week’s slate, that being Buffalo’s home date with probable career-backup Davis Mills. And the back half of the four legs both consist of the Cards-Rams showdown in LA, where I expect a healthy amount of scoring and Arizona to at least be game.

Odell Beckham Jr. Over/Under 4.5 Receptions

One of the relatively quieter developments from last week’s action featured Odell Beckham Jr. playing in his first contest since suffering a torn ACL last October.

Although maybe that shouldn’t be such a surprise considering this is Beckham we’re talking about, one of the sport’s true premier talents since first arriving in 2014.

This was my pick for Comeback Player of the Year coming into the campaign (an award that could already be ticketed to Dak Prescott, however), so I’m certainly not surprised at how spry and energetic — as well as the high usage rate upon his first game back — Beckham was already.

In the end, the former New York Giant nabbed five catches on nine targets from Baker Mayfield, and that was in the aforementioned low-scoring bout against the Bears. His next challenge comes in Minnesota, which easily should contain plenty of more action — and points. That, well, points to Beckham at least maintaining his output from last week, right? Another five-catch outing will do it.

Pick: OVER 4.5 Receptions (-140)