NHL Picks and Predictions for November 11: Best Hockey Bets Tuesday

The temps hit freezing this morning, and it’s going to be pitch dark by 5 p.m. 

Yes, it feels like hockey out there. 

Let’s get a couple winners on November 11th's slate of NHL games.

NHL Season Stats: 2-4 (-1.09 Units)

Flames at Blues

Pick: Blues ML (-150 ESPN BET)

It’s a battle of underwhelming teams here, so why take the favorite? Well, these teams just aren’t equal. The Blues have had some unfortunate luck, while the Flames have just been outright lousy this season.

St. Louis has produced 2.97 expected goals per 60 minutes this season, while allowing 2.72 xGF/60. Yet in reality, they’ve been outscored 3.84 to 2.73 per 60 and sit at 5-8-3. What gives? For starters, they haven’t put the puck in the net as often as the data suggests they should. It’s tough to parse whether that’s bad luck in a small sample or poor finishing.

Specifically, the Blues’ best player Robert Thomas has missed four games and only has two goals in the twelve he’s played. Their top goal scorer this year is Jake Neighbours with six goals, but he’s only suited up eight times. Thomas is back, but Neighbours remains out. Their third big offensive threat, Jordan Kyrou, has just a few goals, though he leads the team with a 62.26% Expected Goal share when on the ice. Despite that, the Blues have been outscored 12-16 when he’s playing.

The bigger issue, however, is early play from goalie Jordan Binnington. He has a career .905 save percentage, a Stanley Cup, and four Nations championships to his name. So far in 2025-26, he’s at .859 with -8.4 Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA), or about -0.89 per 60 minutes. Either he became one of the worst goalies in the league overnight, or this is a small sample fluke for a guy with a nine-year track record of above-average play.

On the other side, Calgary goalie Dustin Wolf is down from his breakout rookie year but has improved lately after an early-season slump. His overall .892 save percentage and -1.5 GSAA hover near league average. The Flames offense comes in after getting shut out in two straight games. They’ve been just awful overall, scoring 2.04 per 60, though with an xGF of 2.75 per 60.

I’m going to bank on Binnington getting it together and the Blues offense performing closer to its capabilities for a change.

Blue Jackets at Kraken

Pick: Kraken ML (-118 FanDuel)

Seattle has a bit of a rest and situational advantage here, as Columbus is on the second night of a back-to-back and playing late for their normal body clocks. Meanwhile, the Kraken are the significantly better defensive team, allowing 2.70 xGA per 60 versus 3.78 xGA per 60 for the Jackets.

Let’s roll with Seattle as small moneyline favorites.