NHL Picks for Wednesday November 12th: Rangers vs. Lightning, Orioles vs. Flyers Bets

We only have four games on the slate tonight, but there’s a couple spots I like here so let’s go!

These are Deadspin's top NHL betting picks for Wednesday November 12th.

NHL Season Stats: 3-5 (-1.45 Units)

Rangers at Lightning

Under 6 (-112 BetRivers)

The Rangers have had a strange start to the season. They have struggled mightily at Madison Square Garden as they became the first team in NHL history to get shut out in 5 of their first 7 home games. They turned the tables on that in a big way on Monday, netting 6 vs. the Nashville Predators. Meanwhile, they have the best road mark in the NHL at 7-0-1. It’s almost certainly small sample size randomness.

Regardless of what’s going on, the Blueshirts face a monstrous task tonight as they travel to Tampa to take on one of the toughest opponents in the league. The Lightning sit at 8-5-2 and on an expected goals basis they outscore their opponents 3.56 to 2.91 per 60 minutes. In actual goals, that’s 2.91 to 2.51.

It’s likely a battle of two childhood rivals in goal that just so happen to be two of the best netminders in the world. Igor Shesterkin of the Rangers has a 90.9% Save% and 4.35 GSAA on the season, which is still good but a little below his normal standards. Same story for Andrei Vasilevskiy at 90.5% Save% and 2.58 GSAA.

If Shesterkin sits, his backup Jonathan Quick is still a stud at age 39 as he’s carrying a 95% Save% and 5.49 GSAA in just under 4 games. Either way, it looks like anything but a shootout tonight, so give me the Under.

Oilers at Flyers

Flyers ML (+120 ESPN BET)

These teams almost certainly won’t meet in the playoffs. It can only happen in the Stanley Cup Finals, and the Flyers are almost definitely not making the Finals. But if they did somehow play in a game that mattered, I would go nowhere near a Philly ML without huge plus odds.

But it’s November, and it is still early, and the Oilers really pace themselves for strong playoff runs. They are actually getting outscored 3 to 3.4 goals per 60 minutes, and on Expected Goals 2.92-3.00 per 60. None of this will matter much come April.

Meanwhile, the Flyers have actually played well — 2.95 xGF per 60 vs. 2.79 xGA. And goalie Dan Vladar has a 91.9% Save% and 4.68 GSAA. They also have a significant rest advantage, as they last played Saturday vs. Monday for the Oilers. I’ll take a shot on the Flyers here.