NL East Future Betting Picks: Season Win Totals and Division Predictions

We journey now to the NL East, where the defending champ Phillies will pretty much run it all back, while my Mets have what feels like an entirely different team. 

The Braves will look to rebound but do they have any starting pitchers left? 

Let’s find a few season long bets to consider.

Phillies Under 89.5 Wins (-110 DraftKings)

The names remain the same, but that’s why I like the under here. This is an excellent but aging lineup. Their best three hitters are Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, and they are all going to be 33 as of Turner’s BDay at the end of June. So is new starting RF Adolis Garcia, though he’s a big defensive upgrade over dugout beer connoisseur Nick Castellanos. JT Realmuto is about to turn 35. All but Schwarber have seen their skills and/or ability to stay on the field start to decline. The guys in their primes right now, namely Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh, are just not as good.

I love their rotation, but it's shallow and comes with serious question marks beyond emerging ace Cristopher Sanchez. Can Jesus Luzardo spike a 2nd straight healthy season? Is Even Year Aaron Nola still a thing? He had a 6.01 in an injury shortened 2025. Zack Wheeler is expected to miss April as he recuperates from Thoracic Outlet Surgery, but will he return as the same pitcher? He’s turning 36 in May. They kind of all have to click as there’s not much behind them. I think this is still a playoff team, but of the Wild Card variety.

Braves to win NL East (+195 Caesars)

It looks super even at the top of this division. Fangraphs has the three top teams all winning between 86 and 89 games. For what it's worth, they have the Braves as the 89 win team. That’s not really why I like this pick though, the margin of error is way larger than the predicted spread. Rather, it's just price; they have the highest payout.

Unlike the Phillies, all the key hitters here are between 25 and 31. They do have health questions as Ronald Acuna Jr, Ausitn Riley and Ozzie Albies have missed significant time the last two seasons. And they have some performance issues as well as Albies, Riley and CF Michael Harris II have all flatlined a bit the last two seasons. This lineup has the best upside in the division though.

The big question here is the health of the pitching staff and yes when Chris Sale looks like the best bet to give you big innings you’re on shaky ground. Spencer Schwellenbach and Hursten Waldrep are already down. They do potentially have both Reynoldo Lopez and Grant Holmes back however. I mostly just like the price here among three excellent teams with question marks.

Nationals Under 65.5 Wins (-105 Caesars)

It's tough to go with an Under on just 65.5 wins, but this pitching staff looks beyond terrible. Right now Fangraps lists Miles Mikolas as SP1. He had a 14.9% K%, 4.84 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 2026. He does eat innings though as he has started at least 30 games every season since 2021.

The rest of the projected rotation features at times promising Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray, the latter of whom has only pitched 8 IP since 2023. There’s also Brad Lord (career 4.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) and Foster Griffin, who pitched to a 1.62 ERA in the NPB last year.

Oh and the bullpen looks absolutely terrible as no one projects for an ERA south of 3.96. Yikes.

There are some promising young bats, especially OF James Wood and SS CJ Abrams, plus OF’s Dylan Crews and Daylen Lile could both emerge. But we could see more “sell” trades, most likely involving Abrams even though he’s not a free agent until 2029.

The Nats did very well in the Juan Soto trade as they got Wood and Abrams as well as MacKenzie Gore and others. But they utterly failed to add to their young corps with anything useful, and they now remain in perpetual teardown mode. This could be the worst team in MLB.