Ranking the NBA’s first round matchups by how likely we are to see an upset

I’ve written before about how there’s a lot to like about this Pelicans roster, but the Suns went to the finals last year and won a franchise record 64 games. The odds don’t seem great, but I have a bit of a theory. What if Pelicans head coach Willie Green has an ace up his sleeve? What if this whole time, he’s been playing chess while the rest of the league has been playing Wii Sports bowling? Picture it: The Pelicans trailing in a close playoff game when Zion Williamson, sitting on the bench, removes his suit jacket to reveal a Pelicans jersey underneath and checks into the game. He’s healthy? Of course he’s healthy. He’s been healthy the whole season! We’ve all seen those between-the-legs dunks he’s done while “recovering.” He’s clearly fine, so why wouldn’t he play for an entire year? Because this was the plan. Not a single team has faced him this season or even game planned for him. The Pelicans even waited a whole playoff game to lure the league into an even greater false sense of security. Once he’s needed, Zion will step onto the court and bulldoze his way to an NBA title. On the off-chance my theory is wrong though, Phoenix should make quick work of this one.

The Bulls tested the defending champs in Game 1 but ultimately came up short. The Bulls just can’t seem to win against the league’s elite which is what they’re up against. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine can have huge scoring games on any given night which I think will make this a decently long series, but this team has been trending downward and I think it can’t be overstated how much they miss Lonzo Ball, who is out for the year.

This matchup was originally higher on the list as the Warriors were seemingly in a downward spiral since the turn of the calendar and Steph Curry missed a couple of weeks leading up to the playoffs, but they put the worries of any Warriors fan to rest in Game 1. Nikola Jokić looked exhausted as you could see on his face the realization that he can’t do it all on his own. This Warriors team is just so deep. Moses Moody, the Warriors’ second of two lottery picks in last year’s draft, has played in just 52 NBA games and averaged just 11.7 minutes in those games. There just isn’t enough playing time to go around. Jokić can extend this series, but a team with a healthy Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green just isn’t going to lose in the first round.

The Heat really flexed their muscles in Game 1 on their way to a lopsided 115 - 91 victory. The Hawks shot 47.4 percent on three pointers while the Hawks shot just 27.8 percent. Trae Young was held to just 8 points on 1-12 shooting. These numbers seem pretty damning for the Hawks but there’s absolutely going to be a regression to the mean in the coming games. 8-seed over 1-seed upsets are extremely rare but this Hawks team is a year removed from going to the conference finals in a run that included beating last year’s 1-seed in the eastern conference. Trae Young is supremely confident and if there was ever an 8-seed that ever believed they were going to win it might be this one. Except for maybe the 2008 Hawks when they had Zaza Pachulia.

They’re young, star-studded, and have something to prove. Which of these two teams am I describing? Take your pick. That’s what makes this matchup so interesting, is that they’re so similar. Both are young and talented but unproven in the playoffs. The Grizzlies were obviously better during the regular season which is why they’re the 2-seed, but it’s a new season now and the Timberwolves are confident. They’re also up 1-0 which is arguably more important.

The Celtics are first in the league in defensive rating (106.2) which plays right into their hand as this is the time of year when defense actually matters. The refs are actually going to let them play now. The Celtics took the Nets’ best shot in Game 1 and were still able to escape with the win as Jayson Tatum beat the final buzzer with a spinning layup to win it. I don’t think anyone would be surprised if every game in this series comes down to the wire. It’s obviously huge for the Nets that Kyrie Irving is now able to play home games. They wouldn’t have a prayer if he was only able to play in four games. I like the Celtics to win this one but any team that has both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on it has a pretty good puncher’s chance. If Steve Nash has any sense at all then Ben Simmons won’t see the floor, but he seems to be teasing the fact that Simmons, who hasn’t played a minute since being eliminated from last year’s playoffs, could be worked into the rotation. There was a headline on ESPN Saturday that read “Sources: Ben Simmons to start practicing with Brooklyn Nets after battling back injury.” START PRACTICING? It’s April. The playoffs have started. The only thing he should be practicing is giving out high-5s while he sits on the bench.

Philadelphia handled their business in Game 1 as Tyrese Maxey scored 38, though Toronto did seem to have their number during the regular season as they went 3-1 against the 76ers. Everyone knows that James Harden’s playoff track record isn’t exactly the best (see: “The refs are actually going to let them play now”), and we recently found out that Matisse Thybulle isn’t fully vaccinated and won’t be able to play in Toronto. Practically a lock for one of the NBA All-Defensive teams, I think his presence will be missed (see: “This is the time of year when defense actually matters”) and he may just galaxy-brain his team all the way to an early vacation in Cancun.

The Jazz trailed for most of the first half against the Luka Dončić-less Mavs but still pulled out the win. Dončić suffered a calf strain in the regular season finale and has been listed as doubtful for Game 2. The likelihood of an upset here really hinges on whether or not the best player in the series is going to play. Tim Cowlishaw of the Dallas Morning News even wrote ,“I was wrong, the Mavericks can’t beat the Jazz without Luka Dončić.” With all the national media attention on the Suns, Bucks, and Nets, and all the pressure they must be facing to win it all, I feel like we’ve forgotten about the Jazz. As a small market team they face an uphill battle to win a championship. They’re not a destination for marquee free agents so they have to draft star players and surround them with good role players, which they’ve done. Last year they were the 1-seed in the west and were top three in both offensive and defensive ratings but ended up blowing a 2-0 lead to the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard. It felt like if not last year, then when? Donovan Mitchell is still only 25, but this group feels like they’ve been at it for a while and haven’t gotten far. Now they’ve been handed a gem in the first round, so chop chop, let’s see what you can do, Utah.