From Thomas Boswell's column in today's Washington Post:
However the reigning kings of geekdom reside at Baseball Prospectus. They’re so respected inside the industry that the Nats have a “Baseball Prospectus Day” at Nats Park on July 7. PECOTA, a Baseball Prospectus site, uses computer simulations to project performance. They think the Nats have a 41 percent chance to reach the playoffs and a 3.9 percent to win the Series (down from 11 percent preseason). The Orioles currently have only a 17.9 percent playoff chances, in part because they’re in the tough AL East, a minuscule 0.7 percent chance to win the Series.
“How did that [model] work out for them the last couple of years? Not very well, right?” said Zimmerman. “That’s why nerds shouldn’t do that stuff.”
What does Zimmerman have to be mad about? PECOTA pegged him for a .285/.350/.473 line last year; he hit .282/.346/.478. Maybe he's mad that the computers can't forecast a complete inability to throw reliably to first?
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