Sunday Scaries: The Week 12 bets to avoid

Sunday Scaries: The Week 12 bets to avoid

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: The Week 12 bets to avoid
Illustration: (Shutterstock)

So I went 1-1 in the Thanksgiving Spreads. Not bad. But I won’t count ‘em in the Sunday Scaries total.

Last week, I went 3-1, bringing my season total to 23-19, well above 50 percent. I’m winning the bets I tell you to avoid, which makes me question the very nature of this series. But here we are.

As always, there are a few games to avoid this week. Here are the spreads that give me the Sunday Scaries.

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2 / 7

Giants at Bengals (+6)

Giants at Bengals (+6)

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: The Week 12 bets to avoid
Image: (AP)

It seems like a mismatch now. The 3-7 Giants vs the 2-7-1 Bengals without Joe Burrow. But these are still two terrible teams no matter what you think, so why should you bet on them?

Both teams are actually very good against the spread. So no mismatch there. Both defenses rank in the bottom half of the league in terms of yards per game, and New York and Cincinnati rank 10th and 12th in team giveaways, respectively. I know it’s tempting to fade Brandon Allen, a former practice squad player, and the Bengals. But Daniel Jones and the Giants have only won games by 1, 3, and 10. You like their odds to win by six?

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3 / 7

Cardinals at Patriots (+2)

Cardinals at Patriots (+2)

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: The Week 12 bets to avoid
Image: (AP)

Kliff Kingsbury will get to go against his former coach, Bill Belichick in New England this afternoon. Student, meet master.

But the favorite coming into this game is the young Arizona team. New England, on the other side of the ball, is sliding. The Patriots have only won twice in their last seven weeks. They’ve had some upset wins and other surprising losses. And at 4-6 ATS this team has just been tough to bet. The 6-4 Cardinals are also 4-6 ATS and they’ve played in four straight one score games. 2 will be a tricky number to bet here.

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4 / 7

Saints at Broncos (+14)

Saints at Broncos (+14)

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: The Week 12 bets to avoid
Image: (AP)

Yeah, don’t touch this game. If you haven’t heard, Denver doesn’t have any quarterbacks. Like, none. Zero. All QBs were deemed “high-risk close [COVID] contacts.” So who will the Broncos start under center? Looks like it will be Kendall Hinton, who played QB at Wake Forest before switching to WR.

The practice-squad receiver will play in his first NFL game today. With Hinton in, expect Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay to get their fair share of touches.

But the Denver offense won’t have it easy with Cam Jordan and a top-ranked Saints defense in town. Plus, on the New Orleans offense, Taysom Hill proved he could throw more than Peewee passes last Sunday.

With all the chaos heading into the game, I’d stay away.

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5 / 7

Bears at Packers (-9.5)

Bears at Packers (-9.5)

Illustration for article titled Sunday Scaries: The Week 12 bets to avoid
Image: (AP)

This Sunday night spread is the second largest of the week and for good reason: the Bears don’t do well in primetime. Still, 9.5 points is a lot to cough up in a divisional game.

Despite Chicago’s struggles after dark, they’re 5-5 ATS. Green Bay isn’t much better at 6-4 ATS. Plus, the forecast at Lambeau looks just a little nippy, not exactly a throwers paradise for Aaron Rodgers and Mitch Trubisky. The spread may come down to who you like defensively. Khalil Mack and the Bears rank near the top of the league in team defense. Still, do you really want to put your money on the Chicago Bears in 2020?

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6 / 7

If you can’t resist…

If you can’t resist…

We’ve reached the point in the slideshow where I’ve told you all the reasons to avoid betting the ugliest spreads of the week, but now I’ll give you my picks.

I know. It doesn’t make a lot of sense. But we’re 11 weeks through the NFL season and I’m picking winners. These Sundays aren’t as scary as I thought.

Here’s who I like in week 12

  • New York is coming off a bye. Take the Giants. It feels weird to say, but I like NY to win by double digits.
  • I saw Hinton towards the end of his Wake Forest tenure. He was a great receiver. I’m rooting for him but I have no idea what to expect. Lay the points, take the team you know. Saints by a lot.
  • Arizona is coming off a little extra rest after visiting Seattle last week. I like the Cardinals to cover and Kingsbury to beat his old coach.
  • I really… really… really… feel like I will regret this. But 9.5 is a LOT of points. So I’ll take ‘em with Chicago. The Bears can’t suck in primetime forever...right?
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