The fastest NFL Combine ever created a new class of sonic boom or bust prospects

The NFL’s Underwear Olympics has always had a tangential connection to actual football. Bench press reps are the equivalent of Strong Man competitions, but until linemen are pulling trucks, they don’t move the needle. Besides, the best combine bench press numbers typically are posted by the lineman with the shortest arm lengths, which is the opposite of what scouts look for.

The 40-yard dash is the main event. Every day during the combine, that’s when the bass drops. Rich Eisen busts out the Simulcam, $1 million rewards are given out for the fastest time, and social media goes berserk. Football is played in short bursts, and that one inch of separation should play a role in whether you have a touchdown or a six-yard gain.

This year’s combine demonstrated how becoming the fastest prospect has turned the combine into Formula One for humans. According to NFL Research, this year’s average 40 times of 4.71 was the fastest in league history. Record-31 players ran a sub-4.4, and those record times weren’t concentrated on a few select position groups. Running backs, wide receivers, offensive linemen, defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs eclipsed their fastest averages.

The 31 players who ran the 40 in under 4.4 seconds was nearly five times the number of players who ran it in 2017. The quantum leap in 40 times is off the charts, and it’s exciting stuff.

It is also a mirage, like watching a Michael Bay marathon. Once the adrenaline rush wears off, reality will set in. Low-budget, moderately-paced Anthony Hopkins flicks win all the hardware during award season.

The slowest players at each position aren’t virtues to idolize, but there’s solid middle ground in there. Even at skill positions like receiver, the 40 is smoke and mirrors. Cooper Kupp, arguably the NFL’s actual MVP, if you factor in the regular season and playoffs, ran a 4.62 at the combine. Tyquan Thornton launched the Combine track meet weekend with a reported 4.21 40, which was corrected to 4.28.

Here are how the other top 10 leaders in receiving yardage last year fared in their respective 40-yard-dashes.

Tyreek Hill: 4.28

Davante Adams: 4.56

Justin Jefferson: 4.43

Diontae Johnson: 4.53

Tyler Lockett: 4.46

Deebo Samuel: 4.48

Ja’Marr Chase: 4.48’

DJ Moore: 4.42

Stefon Diggs: 4.46

The only receivers who ran faster than 4.4 were Tyreek Hill. Baylor’s 6-foot-3 receiver Tyquan Thornton blazed a 4.28, which was initially reported as a combine record 4.21. A receiver with that height is the combine equivalent of Usain Bolt. After his 15 minutes are over, Thornton projects a developmental project that resembles Browns receiver, Anthony Schwartz. Ultimately, Schwartz’s 4.27 at last year’s combine wasn’t enough for him to earn more than a handful of targets and 135 total yards.

Calvin Austin, Velus Jones Jr., Danny Gray, Nick Cross, Christian Watson, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave smashed the 4.4 barrier this year. Interestingly, the three slowest of that group, Olave, Wilson, and Watson, are the highest-projected prospects.

VERDICT: MIRAGE

It takes entire scouting departments to synthesize the data available on most scouts, and the 40 is merely a component in a complex scouting formula. However, this year you can’t overlook that Kalon Barnes and Tariq Woolen ran two of the four fastest 40 times ever for cornerbacks. Last year’s top 40-yard-dash was the 4.25 sprint run by UGA cornerback Eric Stokes. Baylor defensive back Kalon Barnes beat that with a cool 4.23 40 at the 2022 combine but is projected as a third-day pick. Woolen’s time was a tad slower, but what sets him apart is his size. He’s 6-foot-4. Meanwhile, the top cornerback prospect in the draft, Ahmad Gardner, ran a 4.41.

Verdict: Mirage

Virginia Tech pass rusher Amaré Barno ran the fastest 40 in NFL history for a defensive end. Still, they did so 15 pounds lighter than the Odafe Oweh and Montez Sweat, the two previous record holders. The 3-cone drill, which tests the bend of athletes through a series of cones placed five yards apart, is where edge rushers differentiate themselves. Barno’s 4.37 is about as meaningful a talent indicator as Georgia punter Jake Camarda running the fastest 40 by a punter since 2003.

Top-five prospect Aidan Hutchinson’s 4.74 suffices just fine because of his work in position drills and especially after he posted a 6.73 in the 3-cone drill. His time was the third-best at the combine and the second-best time ever for a defensive end. His reward for that combine performance? NFL scouts are nitpicking his wingspan like they’re overthinking Kenny Pickett’s tiny hands.

UGA defensive lineman Travon Walker ran a 4.51 at 272 pounds, but coupled with his 6.89 in the 3-cone drill, has transformed him into a trendy prospect. Walker only recorded 9.5 sacks in three seasons at UGA, capped off by six in his junior campaign. More importantly, he has a 35 1/2 inch arms that Aidan Hutchinson would envy. His physical profile compares to Jadeveon Clowney or Brian Burns. His production says he’s a raw, Lorenzo Carter-caliber pass rusher. Walker is young enough to develop a menu of moves or wind up stinking up the fridge in four year at the end of his rookie deal’s expiration date.

Verdict: Mirage

Even the interior linemen got in on the action. UGA defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt ran the fastest time for an interior defensive lineman at 315 pounds, but his teammate stole his limelight. Jordan Davis had one of the most incredible combines for a defensive tackle since Aaron Donald. Donald’s 4.68 40 is the fastest 40 recorded since 2003, but Wyatt and Davis recorded the third-fastest times. Donald’s interior pressure was as integral to the Rams Super Bowl run as Davis and Wyatt were to UGA’s national championship run. At 6-foot-6, 340 pounds, Davis’ is the inverse of Donald. He’s a run-stuffing giant who can blot out the sun, while his 4.78 40 was the fastest 40-yard-dash for a player over 330 pounds since 2006. This isn’t a guy who dropped weight for the sake of the combine, either. The game tape don’t lie. Davis’ measurables shouldn’t be physically possible, yet it is, and it thrusts him into the conversation for the top prospect in the upcoming draft.

Verdict: Real Deal

The linebacker position is one where speed translates more directly and this group surpassed expectations. The position has shrunk in the past decade as teams have emphasized versatile athletes in the box to counter spread offense concepts and quarterbacks who can take off on their own. Montana State linebacker Troy Andersen’s 4.42 is the fifth-fastest 40-ever time recorded, but he’s hardly an outlier. Alabama’s Christian Harris posted a 4.44.

Harris is already a bonafide stud, but Andersen is this position group’s 2022 combine king. It’s not uncommon to see prospects who’ve converted from quarterback early on in their collegiate careers and prospered on the defensive end, Andersen is an even more unique player because he was the starter at Montana State for two seasons. His accolades included Big Sky Freshman of the Year and First Team All-Conference as a sophomore. By 2021, he was the FCS Defensive Player of the Year. Checking in at 6-foot-3 and 243 pounds, he isn’t some safety moonlighting as a hybrid linebacker. By comparison, Jamin Davis, the second MIKE linebacker taken in 2021 had scouts in a tizzy over his 4.47 40 at 230 pounds. Anderson led the FCS in stops according to Pro Football Focus and was the highest-graded linebacker at the Senior Bowl. Between the Senior Bowl and combine, Andersen’s stock is gaining altitude.

Verdict: Real Deal

Surprisingly, offensive linemen have the strongest correlation between elite 40 times and productive careers. Three of the four fastest 40s in combine history by offensive lineman have been run by Pro Bowl tackles Terron Armstead (4.71), Lane Johnson (4.72), Brian O’Neill(4.82). Tampa Bay’s All-Pro tackle Tristan Wirfs (4.85) ran the sixth-fastest and can claim to be the fastest offensive lineman over 320 pounds. Taylor Lewan (4.87) and Trent Williams (4.88) round out the top 10 fastest players who’ve become upper-echelon starting offensive linemen. Chris Chester played a decade in the NFL after his 4.87 propelled him into the second round. Those other three players with the 10 fastest times, Aviante Collins, Bruce Campbell, and Allen Barbre, were fringe prospects taken in the fourth round or later.

Over the weekend, Ikem Ekwonu, the presumptive top lineman in the draft, ran a 4.97. Kentucky’s 6-foot-7 tackle Dare Rosenthal eclipsed that and matched Trent Williams’ time with a 4.88 run at 290 pounds. However, he did so 20 pounds lighter.

Arizona State’s Kellen Diesch, Tulsa’s Chris Paul, and Northern Iowa’s Trevor Penning followed close behind with 4.89 to round out the fastest group of offensive linemen in NFL combine history. In total, 12 offensive linemen posted a sub-5.0 40, which doubled the previous high set in 2013. Out of that group, 322 pound Penning might be the best FCS offensive tackle prospect since Armstead. He’s even got Myles Garrett on notice.

On the other side of the 40-yard-dash offensive line leaderboard, could Texas A&M’s Kenyon Green’s 5.24 40 (and 20 reps on the bench press) plummet out of the top 10?

In the case of Green, his 40 time is the mirage. Guys like Orlando and Trent Brown have run like slugs at the combine and still become All-Pro pass protectors. What will concern teams who are heavily invested in these exercises, are his 20 bench press reps, which were the second-fewest of any linemen who participated in the workout. We already knew this was going to be a special class of offensive lineman, but the rest of the field left scouts buzzing.

Verdict: Real Deal