Thursday Night Football NFL Week 1 Betting Preview: Eagles vs. Cowboys Prediction

The Philadelphia Eagles kick off the 2025 NFL season with a Thursday night matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles get a home matchup against their divisional rivals, and they’re looking to avoid a letdown after winning the Super Bowl. 

Philadelphia is returning the majority of its offense after dominating in 2024. They ranked fifth in the NFL in points per play (0.444) last season. The Eagles also ranked fourth in offensive plays (65.1) and points (29.0) per game. 

We saw Philadelphia score in a multitude of ways last season. They can sustain lengthy drives to find the end zone or score on explosive plays. Oddly enough, the Eagles ranked 10th in red zone touchdown percentage (58.3%), and there’s some room for improvement on that end. 

The Cowboys added several pieces to their defense in the offseason, but it’s difficult to project them to be an elite unit. They ranked 30th in points per play allowed (0.447) last season. Dallas allowed 61.5 offensive plays per game to their opponents, ranking 31st in points allowed (27.5) per game. 

The Cowboys allowed their opponents to score from anywhere on the field last season. The key here, though, is how bad Dallas was in the red zone. They allowed a league-high 75% touchdown rate once their opponents made it inside the 20-yard line. That rate was 30% higher than the Denver Broncos, who led the NFL in red zone touchdown rate (44.44%).

Dallas might not be as bad defensively after adding several key additions via trade and free agency, but they also recently traded away Micah Parsons. He was the face of their defense, and it’s tough to believe they’ll take any major step forward without him.

The Cowboys played four games without Parsons in 2024. They allowed an average of 30.3 points per game without him. The Pittsburgh Steelers struggled with 17 points, but the Atlanta Falcons (27), San Francisco 49ers (30), and Detroit Lions (47) dominated them.

The Eagles faced the Cowboys twice last season, scoring 34 and 41 points. It’s important to note that they started Kenny Pickett with Tanner McKee finding snaps in the second game.

Although I do expect Dallas’ defense to be slightly better this season, I don’t expect them to be able to stop Philadelphia. The Cowboys' offense should be better with Dak Prescott back and some other new faces. They’re likely to be able to keep this game closer than they were last season, meaning Philadelphia could keep its foot on the gas a bit longer than they did in 2024.

I’m expecting a very limited drop off for this Philadelphia offense, and they’re in an elite spot at home on primetime. 

Where to Bet: Philadelphia Eagles o28.5 team total | -108 at DraftKings Sportsbook