UFC 323 Betting Picks: Best Bets for the Final ESPN Pay-Per-View

The year-closing pay-per-view card for the UFC this weekend marks a historical one. While there is still another Fight Night event next week, UFC 323 will mark not just the final pay-per-view offering as part of the promotion’s ESPN deal, it’s also the final pay-per-view ever with the UFC heading to Paramount next month.

Still, the UFC looks to close the pay-per-view era out with a solid event that features two title fights. The main event will see Merab Dvalishvili put the UFC bantamweight championship on the line once again, looking to become the first UFC champion to defend a title four times in one calendar year. To do so, however, he’ll need to get past Petr Yan, just as he did when the two first met in the UFC Las Vegas main event in March 2023.

The co-main event, meanwhile, will feature Alexandre Pantoja looking for his fifth successful defense of the UFC flyweight championship. He’ll take on Joshua Van, who quickly rose up the 125-pound ranks this year, solidified with a win over Brandon Royval at UFC 317 that earned plenty of praise.

The rest of the main card will feature a theme of former champions taking on rising contenders: Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira, Henry Cejudo (in his retirement bout) vs. Payton Talbott, and Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov.

The prelims will feature a few notable names as well, including Maycee Barber, Marvin Vettori, and Edson Barboza.

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira

Of the three non-title pay-per-view card fights, this is the one I’m looking forward to most. This is undoubtedly a key matchup for the division, as Moreno has held the flyweight title twice while putting on spectacular performances in the Octagon. Taira has built himself up through the ranks but hasn’t reached a UFC title fight yet, having dealt with injuries and a loss to Brandon Royval – Taira’s only loss in professional MMA so far – before earning the opportunity to do so.

A win in this bout, however, and Taira might be next in line for Pantoja (or Van should he win the belt).

While Moreno is definitely a proven all-around fighter, he might be looking to do more striking in this one to counteract the grappling expertise provided by Taira. Perhaps most notable of all is that neither man has been finished in their career, with all of their combined losses coming via decision.

This should be a fun encounter, and the smartest play here is for this three-round bout to see the final horn.

Bet: Moreno vs. Taira To Go The Distance (FanDuel: -290)

Grant Dawson vs. Manuel Torres

This is a battle of a couple of scrappy fighters who are looking to solidify a position for themselves toward the tail end of the featherweight rankings. Dawson has been nearly unstoppable since coming into the UFC off the very first season of Dana White’s Contender Series. In fact, Dawson is 11-1-1 in the Octagon since 2019. Torres, meanwhile, is 4-1 since his own DWCS win, and he’s coming into this bout off a solid TKO of Drew Dober.

This is going to be your grappler vs. striker battle. Dawson’s wrestling is going to be key, and if he gets this battle to the ground, he should be in solid control. That said, Torres has some impressive power, and he can end things in a flash.

With these two tough athletes, even if a finish happens, I fully expect one to not come until later in the fight – if it happens.

BET: Dawson vs. Torres To Go OVER 1.5 rounds (Caesar’s & DraftKings: +105)

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Antonio Trocoli

If you want to talk about a young beast, we can talk about Mansur Abdul-Malik, who competes on the early prelim card against Antonio Trocoli.

Before entering the UFC, Abdul-Malik racked up several consecutive first-round finishes to start his professional MMA career. That earned him a spot on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2024, where he earned a contract after finishing Wes Schultz. After that, he started his UFC run hot, earning a performance bonus with a first-round finish of Dusko Todorovic in his debut, followed by a finish of Nick Klein.

His last fight against Cody Brundage did have some controversy. In the third round for the first time of his career, an accidental headbutt originally resulted in a technical decision win for Abdul-Malik. The fight was overturned to a no contest, however, based on Georgia Commission rules that prohibit incomplete rounds from being scored – even if a fighter is unable to continue due to an unintentional foul.

Taking on a 34-year-old with a 12-5 record and has struggled in the Octagon, however, is probably going to be the bounce-back performance Abdul-Malik just needs. The question is if Trocoli will do enough to survive past the first round.

Bet: Abdul-Malik via KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (FanDuel: +105)