Which College Football Playoff Teams Are Most Vulnerable in the Quarterfinals?

Craig MerzCraig Merz|published: Mon 22nd December, 11:12 2025
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receivers Carnell Tate (17), Brandon Inniss (1) and Jeremiah Smith (4) talk during spring football practice at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center on March 17, 2025. PHOTO USA TODAY SPORTS IMAGESOhio State Buckeyes wide receivers Carnell Tate (17), Brandon Inniss (1) and Jeremiah Smith (4) talk during spring football practice at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center on March 17, 2025. PHOTO USA TODAY SPORTS IMAGES

Matchup are set for the quarterfinals of the College Football after wannabes Tulane and James Madison were easily dispatched along with home teams proven to be less than heavyweights in Texas A&M and Oklahoma.

All remaining contenders have their strengths and weaknesses to varying degrees, although if you’re unbeaten Indiana the latter is harder to find.

So, which teams show the most vulnerability?

The easy answer is to look at the first iteration of the 12-team postseason a year ago when the four schools receiving byes lost their first game.

That is less likely to happen this time under the revised format that rewards the highest seeds over lower ranked conference champions as was the case for Arizona State and Boise State a year ago. Neither were top-four teams deserving of byes.

That doesn’t mean Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia and Texas Tech will breeze into the semifinals this season.

We’re especially talking about you, Buckeyes (12-1), the No. 2 seed set to play No. 10 Miami (11-2) in the Cotton Bowl on Dec. 31.

It may come as a shock after the defending champions rolled through their schedule before being exposed against Indiana in the Big Ten title game, showing Miami a pathway to victory.

Ohio State’s offensive line was manhandled by the Hoosiers to the tune of five sacks, one fewer than the Buckeyes had allowed in their previous 12 games.

When quarterback Julian Sayin wasn’t being hurried, the Buckeyes were unable to punch it in from inside the 10-yard line twice in the second half in the 13-10 loss, which by the way, was the final score of the 2024 Michigan game when the Buckeyes were favored by three touchdowns. That was their last defeat until losing to Indiana.

Ohio State could be under pressure once more against the Hurricanes, who had nine tackles for loss, including seven sacks, and two interceptions in a 10-3 win at Texas A&M in the first round.

Of note, Ohio State’s running backs ran for 87 yards vs. Indiana. Miami held Texas A&M to 89 rushing yards.

While Ohio State has shown vulnerability on offense its defense continues to dominate. Even with Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza quarterbacking the Hoosiers, the Buckeyes held the third-best scoring offense (41.9 points per game) to a touchdown and two field goals and 340 total yards.

Speaking of the No. 1 Hoosiers (13-0), statistically their New Year’s Day showdown vs. No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl favors them. But the Crimson Tide (11-3) are trying to emulate the Buckeyes improbable dash to the title.

Ohio State was given little chance after its inexplicable loss to Michigan which put coach Ryan Day under extreme heat and left critics wondering if the Buckeyes even deserved to be in the playoffs.

Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer was under similar pressure following a 28-7 loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game, yet the Crimson Tide became the first three-loss team to make the CFP and justified the selection with a 34-24 win over Oklahoma.

It was in the Rose Bowl last season that Ohio State, after knocking off Tennessee in the first round, shocked top-ranked and unbeaten Oregon 41-21.

Will history repeat?

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