Originally published on Pundit Tracker
As we have done each of the past two years, we are tracking the weekly NFL picks of the pundits from ESPN, CBS Sports, and Yahoo (22 experts in total).
Here is how they have done through Week 7, sorted best-to-worst by two metrics:
(1) Hit Rate: % of picks that are correct
(2) Yield: average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s picks at Moneyline odds. This gives pundits more credit for out-of-consensus picks.
Hit Rate by Week:
| Pundit | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 69% | 75% | 75% | 80% | 79% | 60% | 60% | 71% |
| Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 69% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 64% | 80% | 67% | 67% |
| Jamey Eisenberg, CBS | 69% | 81% | 75% | 53% | 57% | 60% | 67% | 66% |
| Mike Golic, ESPN | 56% | 81% | 50% | 67% | 71% | 67% | 73% | 66% |
| Cris Carter, ESPN | 75% | 81% | 63% | 53% | 64% | 67% | 53% | 65% |
| Tom Jackson, ESPN | 63% | 81% | 69% | 47% | 50% | 67% | 80% | 65% |
| Ryan Wilson, CBS | 75% | 75% | 56% | 60% | 57% | 67% | 67% | 65% |
| Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 56% | 69% | 69% | 53% | 64% | 67% | 80% | 65% |
| John Breech, CBS | 63% | 88% | 56% | 47% | 71% | 60% | 67% | 64% |
| K.C. Joyner, ESPN | 75% | 75% | 56% | 47% | 64% | 73% | 60% | 64% |
| Merril Hoge, ESPN | 50% | 81% | 44% | 67% | 71% | 73% | 67% | 64% |
| Mike Ditka, ESPN | 63% | 69% | 69% | 67% | 57% | 67% | 53% | 64% |
| Frank Schwab, Yahoo | 56% | 69% | 69% | 60% | 50% | 80% | 60% | 64% |
| Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 56% | 69% | 50% | 67% | 64% | 73% | 67% | 64% |
| Will Brinson, CBS | 38% | 81% | 75% | 67% | 43% | 73% | 60% | 63% |
| Dave Richard, CBS | 63% | 75% | 50% | 47% | 64% | 60% | 80% | 63% |
| Les Carpenter, Yahoo | 75% | 69% | 56% | 73% | 50% | 53% | 53% | 62% |
| Jason La Canfora, CBS | 56% | 69% | 56% | 60% | 64% | 60% | 60% | 61% |
| Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 75% | 69% | 56% | 60% | 50% | 60% | 47% | 60% |
| Josh Katzowitz, CBS | 50% | 75% | 69% | 40% | 57% | 60% | 67% | 60% |
| Pete Prisco, CBS | 56% | 63% | 56% | 53% | 57% | 60% | 73% | 60% |
| Eric Allen, ESPN | 63% | 69% | 56% | 40% | 57% | 60% | 53% | 57% |
| Adam Schefter, ESPN | 69% | 69% | 44% | 47% | 43% | 67% | 53% | 56% |
| Average | 63% | 74% | 60% | 57% | 60% | 66% | 64% | 63% |
Yield by Week:
| Pundit | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Jaworski, ESPN | $1.08 | $1.11 | $1.35 | $1.38 | $1.41 | $0.85 | $0.88 | $1.15 |
| Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | $0.93 | $1.04 | $1.19 | $0.89 | $1.13 | $1.09 | $1.37 | $1.09 |
| Mike Golic, ESPN | $0.89 | $1.28 | $0.82 | $1.09 | $1.24 | $0.98 | $1.26 | $1.07 |
| Mark Schlereth, ESPN | $1.02 | $1.13 | $0.79 | $1.13 | $1.06 | $1.24 | $1.05 | $1.06 |
| Tom Jackson, ESPN | $0.93 | $1.32 | $1.12 | $0.71 | $0.75 | $1.09 | $1.34 | $1.04 |
| Jamey Eisenberg, CBS | $1.03 | $1.26 | $1.31 | $0.82 | $0.95 | $0.85 | $1.05 | $1.04 |
| Ryan Wilson, CBS | $1.20 | $1.17 | $0.92 | $1.03 | $0.97 | $0.94 | $1.05 | $1.04 |
| Mike Ditka, ESPN | $1.06 | $1.01 | $1.14 | $1.13 | $0.92 | $0.98 | $0.98 | $1.03 |
| K.C. Joyner, ESPN | $1.16 | $1.16 | $0.89 | $0.74 | $1.09 | $1.21 | $0.96 | $1.03 |
| Merril Hoge, ESPN | $0.73 | $1.24 | $0.71 | $1.11 | $1.23 | $1.12 | $1.09 | $1.03 |
| John Breech, CBS | $0.91 | $1.37 | $0.99 | $0.72 | $1.21 | $0.86 | $1.04 | $1.01 |
| Seth Wickersham, ESPN | $0.82 | $1.02 | $0.82 | $1.14 | $1.12 | $1.12 | $1.07 | $1.01 |
| Cris Carter, ESPN | $1.16 | $1.24 | $1.04 | $0.82 | $1.06 | $0.94 | $0.78 | $1.01 |
| Frank Schwab, Yahoo | $0.82 | $1.00 | $1.09 | $0.96 | $0.81 | $1.24 | $0.97 | $0.98 |
| Dave Richard, CBS | $0.92 | $1.13 | $0.79 | $0.71 | $1.08 | $0.85 | $1.41 | $0.98 |
| Will Brinson, CBS | $0.54 | $1.22 | $1.31 | $1.12 | $0.61 | $1.12 | $0.88 | $0.98 |
| Les Carpenter, Yahoo | $1.17 | $1.04 | $0.92 | $1.30 | $0.79 | $0.71 | $0.83 | $0.97 |
| Jason La Canfora, CBS | $0.84 | $0.99 | $0.95 | $1.02 | $1.06 | $0.89 | $1.03 | $0.97 |
| Chris Mortensen, ESPN | $1.21 | $1.08 | $0.86 | $0.99 | $0.77 | $0.85 | $0.70 | $0.93 |
| Pete Prisco, CBS | $0.81 | $0.92 | $0.89 | $0.85 | $0.98 | $0.82 | $1.18 | $0.92 |
| Josh Katzowitz, CBS | $0.73 | $1.09 | $1.10 | $0.59 | $0.96 | $0.83 | $1.05 | $0.91 |
| Eric Allen, ESPN | $0.92 | $1.02 | $0.90 | $0.59 | $0.95 | $0.83 | $0.79 | $0.86 |
| Adam Schefter, ESPN | $1.02 | $1.06 | $0.61 | $0.70 | $0.64 | $0.94 | $0.79 | $0.83 |
| Average | $0.95 | $1.13 | $0.98 | $0.94 | $0.99 | $0.97 | $1.02 | $1.00 |
Ron Jaworski of ESPN has jumped out to a significant lead, hitting on 71% of his picks (76-31) with a stellar $1.15 Yield. Meanwhile, his colleagues Adam Schefter and Eric Allen have been the worst, each with a Hit Rate below 60% and Yields well below 90 cents. Overall, the pundits in aggregate have a Yield of $1.00 this season, meaning they are not adding or subtracting any value (betting exclusively on the sportsbook favorites, meanwhile, would have netted a $0.99 yield).
We reviewed the best & worst picks through Week 3 in a previous post, so let’s discuss the highs and lows since. The pundits whiffed entirely (0-for-22) on the Bengals-Browns (Week 4) and Jets-Falcons (Week 5). The best sole contrarian picks were Les Carpenter: Bills over Ravens (Week 4), Keyshawn Johnson: Raiders over Chargers (Week 5) and Jets over Patriots (Week 7), and Mike Ditka: Colts over Broncos (Week 7).
Week 8 NFL picks are now open for voting! Head over to our NFL Section to join our Fantasy Pundit league and see if you can crack our User Leaderboard. You can find all the individual pundit picks on the site as well.
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