Originally published on Pundit Tracker.
As we have done each of the past two years, we are tracking the weekly NFL picks of the pundits from ESPN, CBS Sports, and Yahoo (22 experts in total).
Here is how they have done through Week 3, sorted best-to-worst by Yield. Recall that Yield is the average payout had you bet $1 on each of the pundit’s picks.
| Week | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | Season | Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hit Rate | Yield | Hit Rate | Yield | Hit Rate | Yield | Hit Rate | Yield | |
| Jamey Eisenberg, CBS | 11-5 | $1.03 | 13-3 | $1.26 | 12-4 | $1.31 | 75% | $1.20 |
| Ron Jaworski, ESPN | 11-5 | $1.08 | 12-4 | $1.11 | 12-4 | $1.35 | 73% | $1.18 |
| Cris Carter, ESPN | 12-4 | $1.16 | 13-3 | $1.24 | 10-6 | $1.04 | 73% | $1.15 |
| Tom Jackson, ESPN | 10-6 | $0.93 | 13-3 | $1.32 | 11-5 | $1.12 | 71% | $1.13 |
| Ryan Wilson, CBS | 12-4 | $1.20 | 12-4 | $1.17 | 9-7 | $0.92 | 69% | $1.10 |
| John Breech, CBS | 10-6 | $0.91 | 14-2 | $1.37 | 9-7 | $0.99 | 69% | $1.09 |
| K.C. Joyner, ESPN | 12-4 | $1.16 | 12-4 | $1.16 | 9-7 | $0.89 | 69% | $1.07 |
| Mike Ditka, ESPN | 10-6 | $1.06 | 11-5 | $1.01 | 11-5 | $1.14 | 67% | $1.07 |
| Vegas Favorites | 12-4 | $1.12 | 12-4 | $1.09 | 10-6 | $0.95 | 71% | $1.06 |
| Keyshawn Johnson, ESPN | 9-7 | $0.93 | 11-5 | $1.04 | 11-5 | $1.19 | 65% | $1.05 |
| Chris Mortensen, ESPN | 12-4 | $1.21 | 11-5 | $1.08 | 9-7 | $0.86 | 67% | $1.05 |
| Les Carpenter, Yahoo | 12-4 | $1.17 | 11-5 | $1.04 | 9-7 | $0.92 | 67% | $1.04 |
| Will Brinson, CBS | 10-6 | $0.54 | 13-3 | $1.22 | 12-4 | $1.31 | 65% | $1.02 |
| Mike Golic, ESPN | 9-7 | $0.89 | 13-3 | $1.28 | 8-8 | $0.82 | 63% | $0.99 |
| Mark Schlereth, ESPN | 11-5 | $1.02 | 12-4 | $1.13 | 8-8 | $0.79 | 65% | $0.98 |
| Josh Katzowitz, CBS | 8-8 | $0.73 | 12-4 | $1.09 | 11-5 | $1.10 | 65% | $0.97 |
| Frank Schwab, Yahoo | 9-7 | $0.82 | 11-5 | $1.00 | 11-5 | $1.10 | 65% | $0.97 |
| Eric Allen, ESPN | 10-6 | $0.92 | 11-5 | $1.02 | 9-7 | $0.90 | 63% | $0.95 |
| Dave Richard, CBS | 10-6 | $0.92 | 12-4 | $1.13 | 8-8 | $0.79 | 63% | $0.95 |
| Jason La Canfora, CBS | 9-7 | $0.84 | 11-5 | $0.99 | 9-7 | $0.95 | 60% | $0.92 |
| Merril Hoge, ESPN | 8-8 | $0.73 | 13-3 | $1.24 | 7-9 | $0.71 | 58% | $0.90 |
| Adam Schefter, ESPN | 11-5 | $1.02 | 11-5 | $1.06 | 7-9 | $0.61 | 60% | $0.89 |
| Seth Wickersham, ESPN | 9-7 | $0.82 | 11-5 | $1.02 | 8-8 | $0.82 | 58% | $0.89 |
| Pete Prisco, CBS | 9-7 | $0.81 | 10-6 | $0.92 | 9-7 | $0.89 | 58% | $0.88 |
| Average | 63% | $0.95 | 74% | $1.13 | 60% | $0.98 | 65% | $1.02 |
Jamey Eisenberg of CBS has the early lead, hitting on 75% of his picks with a stellar $1.20 yield. Some of his best picks include the Chiefs over the Eagles and Bengals over the Packers (both Week 3), as well as the Dolphins over the Colts (Week 2). Meanwhile, last year’s best performer, Seth Wickersham (PT Grade: B+), has stumbled out of the gates, with a meager $0.89 yield. Overall, after a rough start, the pundits in aggregate are adding some value this season ($1.02 yield), although simply going with the sportsbook favorites would have netted you a $1.06 yield.
The best individual game pick so far goes to Mike Ditka, who was the only pundit out of the 22 to pick the Titans to beat the Steelers in Week 1, which is surprising as Vegas gave them roughly a 30% probability of winning. The pundits whiffed entirely (0-for-22) on four games so far: Jets/Bucs (Week 1), Chargers/Eagles (Week 2), Browns/Vikings (Week 3), and Colts/49ers (Week 3).
Week 4 could potentially bring some high-yielding predictions, as the Yahoo guys in particular are making some contrarian picks, including the Giants to defeat the Chiefs (Frank Schwab) and the Bills to defeat the Ravens (Les Carpenter, PT Grade: B-).
We will update these rankings throughout the season. In the meantime, visit our NFL Section to see all the individual picks as well as our official grades for each of the pundits.
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