As we count down to the Final Four this week, let's see which pundit's bracket is in the best shape. As a reminder, we are tracking 26 "experts" this year (from ESPN, Yahoo, SI, CBS Sports) as well as the president. To revisit our rankings after the first weekend, see our prior post.
First, let's look at how many pundits collectively pegged each of the Elite Eight and Final Four teams.
| Elite 8 | # of Pundits | Final Four | # of Pundits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 27 | Florida | 19 |
| Michigan St. | 24 | Wisconsin | 3 |
| Arizona | 23 | UConn | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 12 | Kentucky | 0 |
| Michigan | 10 | ||
| Dayton | 0 | ||
| UConn | 0 | ||
| Kentucky | 0 |
Not one of the experts we tracked picked Kentucky or UConn to make the Elite Eight, let alone the Final Four. Only three had Wisconsin in the Final Four: Jay Bilas, Seth Davis, and Mateen Cleaves.
Now, here are the updated pundit rankings based on a few metrics.
- Hit Rate: % of picks that were correct (out of 60 games so far)
- Yield: average payout had you placed $1 Futures bets on each bracket slot at "moneyline" odds (giving more credit for underdog picks)
- Points: traditional bracket scoring system (one point for first round winners, two points for second round, four for Sweet 16, etc)
Overall, brackets have been busted across the board, with the pundits hitting on only 20 percent of the Final Four teams on average (for a woeful $0.48 Yield). Seth Davis has a narrow lead using the traditional bracket scoring system, with the highest "best possible" score as well, followed by Brad Evans and Luke Winn. Only nine of the 26 experts outperformed "chalk" (picking the higher seed in every matchup) on this metric, with only five having a higher 'best possible' result. Luke Winn maintains his lead based on both aggregate hit rate (83 percent) and Yield ($1.39), thanks largely to some strong picks in the early rounds.
We will update our rankings next week. In the meantime, head over to PunditTracker to make your picks on the Final Four games. We will grade you alongside the "experts" once the outcomes are in.
Originally published on PunditTracker.
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