Why the Cavs Haven’t Looked Like an NBA Finals Team This Season

The Cleveland Cavaliers opened the season as the favorites to come out of the East, and oddsmakers still have faith in them, as they still have the second-highest odds, just trailing behind the Knicks. However, if you’ve watched the Cavs at all this year, they have not looked the part of an NBA Finals contender.

As of today, Cleveland is sitting in the play-in game as the seven seed in the East and trail the Detroit Pistons by 5.5 games. They have the 12th-best point differential in the NBA, 10th in net rating, 10th in offensive rating, and 11th in defensive rating. 

The stats match the eye test: the Cavs have felt very average and have needed to lean on Donovan Mitchell far more than in seasons prior. Last night’s 17-point come-from-behind win against the lowly Wizards was a culmination of all the problems facing the Cavs at this point in the season.

Mitchell needed to play hero ball to beat the worst team in the league, scoring 24 points in the 4th quarter. The bench only mustered 13 points, and Darius Garland continued his early-season struggles with an ugly 0/11 game from behind the arc. Most importantly, the effort remains a massive problem. Outside of Mitchell and Evan Mobley, the team looked incredibly flat. Even Jaylon Tyson didn’t seem to be playing at his normal high-energy level.

Cleveland has been one of the more injured teams in the league this year, with Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Max Strus, Sam Merrill, and a few others missing significant time. 

It’s hard to truly judge how this team will perform in April, but the effort we’re seeing so far is disappointing, to say the least. Kenny Atkinson has been very vocal about the lack of effort shown on a night-to-night basis, and Donovan Mitchell was the most animated I’ve ever seen him during last night’s comeback. He’s seemed very frustrated in a Cleveland team he’s bet on to take him to at least a conference finals, a point he’s never reached at this point in his career.

This early-season adversity may be what the Cavs need. Over the past few years, the Cavs have peaked way too early in the season and fallen apart in the playoffs. Could this be the year that the Cavs surge after the All-Star break instead of their typical late winter swoon?

Hopefully, as the year goes on, the effort issues will be fixed by a healthy 10-man rotation, but what will turn around is the three-point scoring. Outside of Mitchell, the shooting has been way below career averages, and that’s something that normally levels out over the course of a season.

3PT Shooting Percentage 2024 vs 2025: 

Donovan Mitchell: 36.8% → 39.4% 

Evan Mobley: 37% → 35.2% 

Darius Garland: 40.1% → 26% 

De’Andre Hunter: 40.5% → 31% 

Dean Wade: 36.0% → 28.9% 

Lonzo Ball: 34.4% → 26.3% 

Larry Nance Jr.: 44.7% → 30.3%

For a lot of the veterans on this roster, you have to expect some sort of return to the mean on three-point shooting. Also, getting Sam Merrill and Max Strus back into the lineup should help the Cavs, as they’ve needed to rely heavily on Jaylon Tyson to hit threes consistently. He’s knocking them down at a 45% clip, which has been huge for Cleveland, but I’m not sure that’s something that will last at that high a rate over the course of the year.

Another missing piece that has been vastly needed is Jarrett Allen. 

Mobley has been tasked with a lot more action at center this year, and I just think he’s better suited at the four. After a Defensive Player of the Year win in 2024, I believe it has been proven that he plays better with a center behind him. Having a center allows him to float more on defense and stray away from guarding the most physical player on the floor. Having Allen back full-time should also help with some rebounding woes plaguing the Cavs.

I’m not out on this iteration of the Cavs, especially since we haven’t seen this roster at close to full strength this year. What I will say: betting on the Cavs to win the East at +350 feels like horrible value, as many teams in the East have taken significant strides this year. With the Cavs firmly above the second apron, I’m not sure there will be many moves they can make to change things, so hopefully getting healthy can right the ship in Cleveland.