Why the Florida Gators’ One Fatal Flaw Could Cost Them Another Title

Don’t look now, but with Selection Sunday just four weekends away, the Florida Gators look like they intend to win another national championship.

Thanks to Wednesday’s 20-point win at Georgia…which followed a 19-point win at Texas A&M…which followed a 23-point home thrashing of Alabama…which followed a 47-point win at South Carolina, the Gators (18-6, 9-2 SEC) have built a one-game Southeastern Conference lead heading into Saturday’s first-place showdown with Kentucky in Gainesville, Fla.

They are a top-ten ranked team in the NET rankings as of Friday morning but fifth in KenPom, which is exactly where they were one year ago today. That’s just one of many good signs for the Gators.

Thanks to the nation’s most productive frontcourt — key returnees Thomas Haugh (17.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg), Alex Condon (13.3 ppg, 7.9 rpg) and Rueben Chinyelu (11.8 ppg, 11.8 rpg) — Florida leads the country in rebounding margin at plus-15.3 per game.

Per KenPom.com, the Gators boast the nation’s fifth-best defense as they allow just 91.1 points per 100 possessions. That’s a tad better than last year’s defense (91.8) that was good enough to win the NCAA title.

The sharps believe in the Gators, too. When you take a spin around the nation’s top online sportsbooks, Florida generally holds the fifth-best odds to take it all on April 6 in Indianapolis — trailing only Arizona, Michigan, Duke and Houston.

Long story short, the Gators are the best team in what continues to be college basketball’s best league. So of course they’re in the hunt for the national title.

So why doesn’t Florida have a legitimate shot to go back-to-back? Because they don’t have enough legitimate shooters.

Here’s what we mean: While the Gators enjoyed their best 3-point shooting night in months on Wednesday night at Georgia — going 10 of 26 (38.5%) from long range – they’re still below 30% for the year. Specifically, they’re at 29.2%, which ranks last among all power-conference teams and 353rd out of Division I’s 365 squads.

There’s nothing in modern college hoops history that suggests this is good enough to become the national champion.

Since the NCAA moved the 3-point line back to the international distance (22-foot-1¾) prior to the 2019-20 season, here’s how each NCAA champ has shot.

2025: Florida 35.6% 82nd in nation

2024: UConn 35.8% 72nd

2023: UConn 36.3% 62nd

2022: Kansas 36.1% 51st

2021: Baylor 41.3% 1st

2020: No tournament, but Kansas was the clear No. 1 per KenPom when the season was cancelled due to COVID — and the Jayhawks ranked 132nd nationally at 34.1%

If you look at last year’s Sweet Sixteen, only Michigan State (31.1%) was within a few percentage points of Florida’s current rate. It’s just too much to expect a bad 3-point shooting team to reel off six straight wins — especially when so many of the nation’s other top teams have embraced offenses with four or five shooters on the floor.

The Gators have just three guys who are hitting at least one 3-pointer per game: sixth man Urban Klavzar (49 of 127; 38.6%), Haugh (45 of 130; 34.6%) and shooting guard Xaivian Lee (37 of 145; 25.5%). As a team, Florida makes just 7.4 3-pointers per game.

Now look at the NET’s top 10 through Wednesday’s games. Here’s how they shoot from 3-point range, where that ranks nationally and how many guys average at least one 3-pointer per game:

Michigan: 35.4% 102 Six

Arizona: 35.7% 81 Three

Duke: 34.1% 175 Four

Houston: 34.1% 176 Four

Illinois: 36.1% 65 Seven

Gonzaga: 34.9% 133 Three

Florida: 29.2% 353 Three

UConn: 37.0% 39 Four

Iowa State: 40.0% 5 Four

Purdue: 37.7% 28 Five

One of these things is not like the others. That’s why the Gators won’t be able to separate themselves from the rest for another “One Shining Moment.”