Why Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia Might Be the Real Heisman Favorite

Nine weeks into this season, the Heisman Trophy odds list has many of the archetypes one would probably expect to find in contention for college football’s top honor.

Alabama’s quarterback (Ty Simpson) is the odds-on favorite at +300 at BetMGM while Ohio State’s quarterback (Julian Sayin) and Georgia’s quarterback (Gunner Stockton) are also in the top six.

Not to take anything away from those three and the other standouts at perennial contender programs. But are any of those players’ teams where they are, firmly in title contention, mainly because of those individuals’ accomplishments?

It’s hard to argue they are. Those schools are consistently among the best recruiting schools, loading their rosters with some of the best high-school prospects in each year’s class.

Let’s go back to the origins of the award, which was created by New York’s Downtown Athletic Club to recognize "the most valuable college football player east of the Mississippi.”

Well, never mind that last part. We’ve grown well past the Heisman being a regional award.

But the “most valuable” part stands out.

And has anyone been more valuable to their team the last two years than Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia?

Pavia is in the heart of the Heisman race, to be fair. He’s fourth on BetMGM’s odds list at +800. But given that criteria, a strong case can be made he should be the favorite.

In the four years before Pavia arrived as a transfer from New Mexico State, the Commodores had a 2-31 record in Southeastern Conference games. I would call them the laughing stock of the SEC, but I’m not sure any other team really thought about them enough for that to be the case.

Last year, Pavia led Vanderbilt to a 3-5 SEC record and its first bowl appearance since 2018. The 40-35 upset of No. 1 Alabama in which he threw for 252 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 56 yards was the highlight. But the Commodores also beat Auburn and took top-10 opponents Missouri and Texas to the wire.

In one season, Pavia had totally transformed the Commodores with his swagger on the field and his confidence that Vanderbilt was just as good as these conference opponents that were much more talented on paper.

That has carried over to the rest of the roster in a significant way in Pavia’s second season. Not to discredit the coaching staff’s job building up the roster, but it sure feels like the chance to play with a guy like Pavia was a huge selling point on the recruiting trail.

After breaking onto the scene in 2024, Vanderbilt has looked like a team that belongs on the field with any SEC opponent in 2025. They’re 2-1 in SEC play after facing three conference opponents ranked in the top 11 of the poll at the time of the games.

With last week’s 31-24 win over No. 10 LSU, the Commodores are ranked 10th in this week’s AP poll, the program's highest ranking since 1947.

Pavia doesn’t have the numbers to line up with other quarterbacks nationally. He’s eighth in the SEC in passing yards (1,569) and tied for third in TD passes (15) and ranks 10th in rushing yards (438).

But it’s hard to find a player who has meant more to his team’s success this season.

Vanderbilt hosts No. 15 Missouri this weekend and then takes on No. 22 Texas. If the Commodores win both those games, they’re legitimate College Football Playoff contenders.

And Pavia should probably start thinking about what suit he wants to wear in New York on Dec. 13.