2026 MLB MVP Picks: Best Long-Shot Bets in the AL and NL

It’s MLB Awards Week, and today we’ll take a walk through the MVP markets. As was the case with our Cy Young picks, there are overwhelming favorites in both leagues. 

It’s tough to make a case against either Aaron Judge (+250) or Shohei Ohtani (-110). With Cy Young there’s unfortunately a better chance that a pitcher misses time, but there’s a lower risk of that with hitters. Still, who knows anything for sure? No one saw Cal Raleigh on the MVP horizon last year and he came close even with Judge having yet another monster season. 

Of the four big Cy Young and MVP favorites, Judge at +250 is the only one I would consider playing between the SP injury risks and Ohtani’s huge price. But for the purposes of this article, let’s go through some longer shot MVP picks.

Gunnar Henderson (½ unit +2000 BetRivers)

The Orioles 24 year old shortstop had a monster 2025 with a 37 homers, 210 combined runs and RBI’s, 21 steals and a .281 batting average. 

But a lot of that production was pre All-Star break, and then he slumped last year to just 17 homers and 153 Runs+RBI’s. We found out recently that he suffered through shoulder impingement most of the season, but he says he’s fully healthy now. We have no way of confirming any of this of course, but we’re shooting for upside here and Gunnar provides that in spades. He’s still just 24 and is slated to bat leadoff or 2nd in front of Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso.

Junior Caminero (½ unit +2500 BetMGM)

Did Caminero’s incredible 2025 season somehow fly under the radar? He slashed .264/.311/.535 with 45 homers and 110 RBI’s in a season where he turned just 22 in the middle. 

Only three players in MLB history have ever hit that many dingers in a season at his age or younger (Eddie Matthews, Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Joe Dimaggio) while a fourth had the same number (Johnny Bench). That’s an impressive club. Now on the downside, the Rays are moving back from Humid Yankee Stadium to their antiseptic dome. It likely won’t impact Caminero’s homers much as he actually had one more on the road last year than he did at Steinbrenner Field. But he did hit just .218 away vs. .313 at home, which probably explains the high price tag here. 

Still, he also could get even better, he’s still just 22! Sign me up!

Ronald Acuna Jr. (½ unit +1200 Caesars)

Again, I’m just trying to take shots on guys with upside and who in MLB has more than Acuna? After all he hit .337 with 41 homers and 73 steals in 2024. Of course he blew out his knee in 2024 for the second time in his career (and his other knee). 

He missed time again in 2025 and was still very good (.403 wOBA vs. .428 in 2023) but just not nearly as explosive as he had 21 homers and nine steals in 95 games. But perhaps there’s a little deja vu all over again? His 2023 explosion was Year 2 after his first knee surgery and a relatively meh (by his standards) 2022 return. I don’t think he’s a favorite to repeat the trick as he’s 28 now, but we’re looking for 90th percentile outcomes here so I like a low dollar shot on it.

Kyle Tucker (¼ unit, +4000 BetRivers)

Well none of these will work if Shohei does Shohei things. 

But what if Ohtani is merely great and not insane and does not even have the best numbers on his own team? If some of his homers turn into doubles, it could lead to a crazy RBI total for Tucker in the number 2 hole. The new Dodger superstar has an extremely calm and low Q rating profile and is off two injury ravaged seasons, but he remains one of the top hitters in the game. He had a 12.7% Barrel% last year with nearly identical BB% (14.6%) and K% (14.7%) and 25 steals in 136 games.