MLB Best Bets September 5th: Expert Baseball Betting Picks, Predictions

Let’s hope for no lightning delays on today’s MLB slate. These are our top betting picks for Friday, September 5th, 2025.

Season Record: 9-4-1, +5.09 Units

Mets at Reds

Pick: Over 9 (-110 BetMGM)

It’s a last stand of sorts for the Reds, who trail the Mets by five games in the NL Wild Card race, with the Giants now a game ahead of them. We get a battle of lefties in David Peterson for the Mets and Andrew Abbott for the Reds, and the two have an awful lot in common.

Both made the All-Star Game on the heels of excellent bottom-line results that advanced metrics suggest were a bit better than their actual skills. And both have tailed off a bit in the second half thanks to some clunker outings.

Peterson turned into the workhorse the Mets desperately needed this season and still has an excellent 3.61 ERA overall. But his 1.31 WHIP is not good, and his 21.2% strikeout rate vs. 9% walk rate is just league average. He generates a lot of grounders with a 4.8 launch angle. That could help in Cincinnati’s launching pad of a ballpark, but it can also lead to tough outings when those worm burners find holes.

In Peterson’s last outing, he got BABIP’d into oblivion, giving up eight runs on eight hits and three walks in just two innings at home against the Marlins. All told, he has a 5.02 ERA and a scary 1.49 WHIP since the break.

Abbott’s 2.80 ERA and 1.12 WHIP are indeed excellent, and his 22.9% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate beat Peterson’s numbers, but they still don’t fully support ace-level results. With a 19.5 launch angle, he gives up a lot of fly balls. That’s a dangerous way to live at Great American (Sm)allpark, but only 7.8% of those flies have gone for homers — below the league rate of 11.8% HR/FB.

Abbott has a 3.70 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in the second half, which is still solid, but his 4.40 SIERA suggests that his good fortune continues. And he faces a tough task here as the Mets offense has surged lately. Since August 1, they’ve slashed .287/.364/.506 — league highs in all three categories.

The Reds, meanwhile, aren’t hitting particularly well over that stretch. They did put up nine runs in each of their last two games, but they also gave up 25 runs total and lost both times. Give me the over here.

Guardians at Rays

Pick: Rays ML (-140 Fanatics)

Is a two-start sample too soon to pass judgment? I’m asking because the Rays’ Ian Seymour has allowed one run and five hits over 10 innings, with two walks and 16 strikeouts. He was good as a reliever for Tampa Bay before that, posting a 2.97 ERA and 1.02 WHIP overall in 33.1 innings. And he gets to face a Guardians team that has batted .206 and ranks dead last in team wRC+ since August 1. Seymour is expected to pitch in a “bulk” role tonight.

I at least like Seymour to outpitch Guardians starter Gavin Williams, who shows flashes but remains inconsistent. His last four starts have gone: 4 ER in 4 IP, 0 ER in 5.1 IP, 3 ER in 3.1 IP, and 1 ER in 7 IP.

Williams also has to face a hot Rays offense that has scored 36 runs in its last five games — all wins. I’ll say the Rays keep the party going.