MLB Best Bets for Labor Day: Orioles vs. Padres, Phillies vs. Brewers Picks

Happy Labor Day, everyone! Let’s cash some tickets. It’ll make that barbecue taste that much better.

Season record: 4-3-1, +0.75 units

Orioles at Padres

Pick: Under 7.5 (100, Caesars)

Kyle Bradish made his first start in 14 months last week, and the budding ace picked up right where he left off. He went six innings at home against the Red Sox, striking out 10 of the 21 batters he faced. Command can betray pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery, but Bradish didn’t walk anyone.

Now, before we go too crazy, it’s just one start — and Bradish posted an 8.3% walk rate and a 4.91 ERA over 22 innings in his six-start rehab assignment. Still, it’s an encouraging sign.

He’ll face Dylan Cease, who sits firmly in that fantasy “not-quite-ace” tier. He flashes brilliance, then frequently watches it unravel. Control is always the issue, with a 10% career walk rate (and the same mark this season). Lately, it’s been even worse, ballooning to 14.9% over his last seven starts. When Cease is locked in, he can overcome it thanks to an elite 29.9% strikeout rate.

The good news for him: this Orioles lineup doesn’t hit well right now. Even after scoring 11 runs Saturday, Baltimore ranked just 27th in average (.226) and 26th in slugging percentage (.373) in August. Walking Gunnar Henderson here and there may not be the worst thing — the O’s are stacked with inexperienced young hitters.

I’m semi-tempted by the first-five under since I don’t trust the Orioles’ bullpen. But San Diego has one of the best relief units in baseball, posting a 3.15 ERA (fifth) and 1.10 WHIP (third) since the trade deadline. Robert Suarez, Mason Miller and Jason Adam should all be available today, with only Adam pitching since last Tuesday.

Plus, Orioles unders when they’re moneyline underdogs have thrived, going 39-18-4 with a 28.6% ROI (per VSiN.com). So I’ll stick with the full-game under.

Phillies at Brewers

Pick: Phillies ML +130 (ESPN Bet)

We get the two best teams in the National League here. The Brewers are 85-53; the Phillies are 79-51 everywhere but Citi Field.

The pitching matchup looks lopsided on paper: Jacob Misiorowski vs. Taijuan Walker. But Walker has quietly pitched well, carrying a 3.61 ERA in nine starts since returning to the rotation July 9. Granted, it’s a high-wire act with a minuscule 13.8% strikeout rate.

Misiorowski, meanwhile, throws triple-digit heat and racks up strikeouts. Almost. He’s not exactly limiting runs lately, posting an 8.16 ERA across his last four starts — just 14 1/3 innings total.

This play still feels like holding your nose: taking the most “meh” of starters against a future ace. But this is simply backing the Phillies at rare plus money.