MLB Best Bets September 3rd: Dodgers vs. Pirates, Phillies vs. Brewers Betting Predictions

Deadspin's daily MLB betting picks have been hot. So let’s keep the good times rolling.

Season record: 8-3-1, +4.79 units

Dodgers at Pirates

Pick: Pirates F5 (+130, FanDuel)

I backed Pirates starter Braxton Ashcraft last week in St. Louis and he didn’t disappoint: 5.2 innings, 1 earned run, 4 hits, 1 walk, and 5 strikeouts. Unfortunately, I played it as a Pirates F5 bet, which requires Pittsburgh to score runs. The game was tied 1-1, and we had to settle for a push.

Ashcraft is back today, this time facing a tougher test against the Dodgers and a now fully stretched-out Shohei Ohtani. Through four starts, Ashcraft has been lights out with a 1.42 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 20 strikeouts and only 3 walks across 19 innings. The only caveat: he’s yet to face elite lineups (Reds, Cubs, Rockies, Cardinals).

The Pirates, however, are quietly playing solid baseball. They beat the Dodgers last night and are 10-4 since Aug. 18, ranking 10th in MLB with a 113 wRC+ — slightly better than L.A.’s 108 mark over that span. Of course, Pittsburgh can’t hang with the Dodgers over a full season, but for one game — or just half a game — they can.

The Pirates are 31-23-15 with a +4.8% ROI in F5 bets at home, while the Dodgers are 23-28-13 with a -18.1% ROI on the road in that spot. Let’s go back to the well.

Phillies at Brewers

Pick: Phillies ML (+100, BetRivers)

We cashed on Philadelphia Monday as the Phillies scored twice in the ninth to break a tie, just after the Brewers had stormed back to even the game in the eighth. Milwaukee jumped ahead 5-0 early, but the Phillies had the last word.

So why run it back? These might be the two best teams in baseball, and we can get Philadelphia at even money in a winnable pitching matchup.

Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies, and he’s a wild card — ace-level one start, batting practice the next. He’s making his fourth start since returning from injury and has a 6-inning, 2-run gem sandwiched between a 2.1-inning, 6-run blowup and a mediocre outing. At even money, I’ll gamble we see the good version of Nola.

Milwaukee goes with Jose Quintana, who typically gives you 5 to 6 innings with 2 to 3 runs allowed. He was roughed up in his last start against Arizona, though.

Give me the Phillies at even money to take another.