AFC Super Bowl Picture: Ranking the Conference’s Top Contenders

Roger Brown|published: Fri 12th December, 16:48 2025

Oct 12, 2025; Tottenham, United Kingdom; Denver Broncos kicker Wil Lutz (3) kicks a field goal against the New York Jets during an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The AFC appears to be playing the Rodney Dangerfield role these days. At least that’s the view from Las Vegas.

Although Denver and New England each own an 11-2 record – the best record in the NFL – neither team is at the front of the line in terms of being favored to win the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl favorites, according to DraftKings, are three NFC teams: the Los Angeles Rams (+370), followed by Seattle (+650) and Green Bay (+750).

No team is getting less respect than Denver, which owns a 10-game winning streak and is a 2.5-point home underdog against Green Bay on Sunday.

According to the Denver Post, no NFL team has been an underdog when it was trying to extend a 10-game winning streak since Kansas City in 2020, when the Chiefs were sitting starters in the final week of the regular season. Baltimore had also won 10 in a row and was an underdog entering the final week of the 2019 season, but, like the Chiefs, the Ravens were resting starters.

Even if the top AFC teams are considered paper tigers, one of them is going to play its way into the Super Bowl. Here are the teams most likely to represent the conference in that game:

1. Broncos (11-2)

Denver gets the nod over New England because it would win a tiebreaker and earn the No. 1 seed should the Broncos and Patriots finish in a tie for the AFC’s top record. Denver has the edge because of its record against common opponents. The Broncos are 6-0 at home this season. Denver’s offense has been good enough, and the defense is among the NFL’s best (18.1 ppg).

2. Patriots (11-2)

Nov 9, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws downfield during the first quarter against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

Quarterback Drake Maye has made huge improvements since last season, and is in the conversation for NFL MVP.

New England is well above average in all three phases, and is 6-0 in road games. A run to the AFC championship will likely hinge on a healthy offensive line. Rookie Will Campbell, the team’s starter at left tackle, is on injured reserve and isn’t eligible to return until Week 18.

3. Texans (8-5)

Dec 7, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Houston Texans running back Dare Ogunbowale (33) scores a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Houston leans heavily on its defense, which is allowing a league-low 16.0 points per game, and is building momentum. The Texans have won five in a row since a 3-5 start and have good wins over Jacksonville, Buffalo, Indianapolis and Kansas City during that stretch.

The victories over Indianapolis and Kansas both came on the road. This looks like a team that has yet to play its best football.

4. Bills (9-4)

Dec 7, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills safety Cole Bishop (24) tackles Cincinnati Bengals tight end Tanner Hudson (87) after a catch in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

It’s been a Jekyll-and-Hyde season for Buffalo, and losses to Atlanta and Miami are concerning. There was also a surprising home loss to New England in Week 5. Still, a healthy Josh Allen gives Buffalo a chance to win any game.

5. Chargers (9-4)

Dec 8, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackle Jamaree Caldwell (99) tackles Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Injuries – particularly the season-ending injury to left tackle Joe Alt – may have scratched Los Angeles off the list of legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but the Chargers are capable of an upset or two once the postseason arrives.

5. Jacksonville (9-4)

Dec 7, 2025; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) throws downfield against the Indianapolis Colts during the second half at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

The Jaguars are going to make the playoffs, but they won’t scare anyone once they get there. Jacksonville has won five of its last six, but three of those victories came against Las Vegas (2-11), Arizona (3-10) and Tennessee (2-11).

Chiefs (6-7)

It appears Kansas City has run out of magic, but if the Chiefs do find a way to make the playoffs who would you rather play: Kansas City or Pittsburgh?

Best of the Rest: (Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Indianapolis).