ALCS Game 3 Best Bets: George Kirby & Shane Bieber Player Prop Picks

The Dodgers sure look inevitable. Then again, so did Thanos. Anyways, we have AL Game 3 tonight, let’s go!

Season Record: 24-24-2, -2.41 Units

George Kirby Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-140 BetMGM)

Kirby is a legit ace, despite his middling 4.21 ERA, 1.19 WHIP surface stat season. His ERA estimators suggest that shortchanged him a bit as he had a 3.39 SIERA and 3.85 xERA with a career-high 26.1% K%. He missed the first quarter or so of the season with an injury, then started slowly, but by September he was regularly dealing again.

Then in 2 playoff starts vs. the Tigers he gave up 3 earned runs, 9 hits and a walk in 10 innings with 14 K’s (35% K%). He’s peaking at just the right time.

So why take a negative prop here? It’s entirely about how the Mariners have used him. He went exactly 5 IP both games. Granted, a lot of it had to do with not wanting him to face Kerry Carpenter a 3rd time, but it's more than just that.

Kirby’s numbers have fallen off a cliff this year on his 3rd trip through the order. Batters have a .286 wOBA the 1st time they see him and then a .264 the 2nd go around. But when they face him a 3rd time, that wOBA goes up to .390. You know who had wOBA’s around .390 this season? Juan Soto (.390), Kyle Schwarber (.391) and Cal Raleigh (.392).

It just feels like no matter how well Kirby pitches, they will not want him to face leadoff hitter George Springer a 3rd time.

It also helps that Seattle’s bullpen has had a chance to catch their breath thanks to the off day yesterday and a one-sided victory on Monday. None of Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, or lefty specialist Gabe Speier has pitched since Sunday.

Shane Bieber Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130 BetMGM)

The Blue Jays season probably hinges on getting a quality outing from Bieber. They are down 2-0 in the series and have the really shaky current version of Max Scherzer lined up to start Game 4.

Bieber has flashed his former ace stuff since returning from 1.5 seasons on the IL, with a 3.57 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 40.1 IP. He went at least 5 IP in all seven of his regular season starts and gave up 2 earned runs or fewer in five of them. His 23.3% K% was decent but not spectacular. He did lay an egg in his one playoff start vs. the Yankees, giving up 5 hits and a walk in 2.2 IP.

I like him to get to his K prop mostly because of the matchup. The Mariners had a 24.6% K% at home, the 2nd worst mark in MLB. And they’ve gotten even more Whiff-tastic in the playoffs with an overall 28.8% mark.

Eugenio Suarez (38.7%), Julio Rodriguez (38.2%), Randy Arozarena (36.1%) and even Cal Raleigh (29.4%) are all having contact issues.