As trade deadline approaches... Let's make some deals!

The MLB trade deadline is this Friday, July 30 at 4 p.m. EST. Already we’ve seen big names like All-Stars Nelson Cruz and Adam Frazier get moved to contenders within the last week. There will certainly be several more moves before the deadline. Currently, there are 18 teams either in position to make the playoffs or within seven games of being in a playoff position. We are going to consider those teams buyers. A few teams in that category have shown some interest in selling at the deadline (Yankees, Angels, Cardinals, Braves). Every team on that list has stated that they do not intend to sell key pieces even as the deadline approaches. Therefore, we will not be considering any of them sellers.

Throughout this article, we will be looking at the biggest names that have been floating around in MLB trade rumors leading up to the deadline and detail the likelihood of each being traded and a prediction as to where they will end up.

Let’s get started.

Means was recently activated from the 10-day IL. Following this season, Means will enter his first year of arbitration, making right now the perfect opportunity to ship him out of town...if the Orioles aren’t willing to pay a new, heftier price for their ace. However, the Orioles will definitely be willing to pay for a legitimate ace. Given that left-handed starting pitching will be hard to come by in the upcoming free-agent class, having the ability to work arbitration with a legitimate ace will be an incredible privilege this offseason (there’s Clayton Kershaw and....ummmm, Eduardo Rodriguez I guess, and James Paxton. those are the top guys and that’s pretty thin). Obviously, if a king’s ransom is presented, the Orioles would be more than happy to ship Means. I don’t see that happening though.

Odds that Means is traded before July 30: 2 percent

Prediction: Means stays with Baltimore

Mancini has been one of the feel-good stories in baseball after beating cancer and returning to the Orioles where he’s done very well this year. He even competed in the Home Run Derby. Mancini is a powerful veteran bat, and would be a phenomenal locker room presence for any team interested. Another plus, he is not under contract for next season (He’s making just $4.75M). He will be in his third year of arbitration, but Mancini has done enough at the plate to warrant a huge bump in pay after the 2021 season. While most teams would be more than willing to give someone like Mancini a boost in salary, the Orioles have a deep farm system and several Major League-ready bats to fill Mancini’s spot in the lineup. That makes it much more likely that the Orioles would be willing to part ways with Mancini. The price for Mancini will still be hefty, however, and most likely have to include an interested team’s top-10 prospect as well as one or two more prospects, but that’s not too much for a bat as solid as Mancini’s, especially if an interested team doesn’t have a consistent designated hitter available.

All this may sound like Mancini will surely be traded before the deadline, but the Orioles are one of the lowest-spending teams in the league currently. With much of the team still unproven or in the minors, it’s likely the Orioles won’t be spending too much on offense for years to come, meaning Mancini’s rise in pay wouldn’t do too much damage to the team’s spending. Therefore, it’s still a possibility Mancini remains in Baltimore through the remainder of the season.

Odds that Mancini is traded before July 30: 60 percent

Prediction: Mancini gets shipped to the Yankees

Duffy has quietly put together a fantastic season. Through 13 games started, Duffy has recorded a 2.51 ERA and 9.6 K/9 (the highest of his career). Length in games has been the main issue for Duffy. Since returning from injury in late July, the Royals starter has yet to record an outing in which he threw at least 80 pitches, and he’s only gone five innings in one appearance. However, for a team in dire need of left-handed starting pitching, Duffy could be a nice addition, especially if he can recover his strength enough to go deep into games when his team needs him to. Because of this big red flag attached to Duffy, the best fits would be teams with strong bullpens who can maintain leads that Duffy builds through four or five innings. That being said, several teams with poor bullpens have already expressed interest in Duffy, particularly the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Duffy is 32 years old and will be an unrestricted free agent in the upcoming offseason, meaning now is the perfect time for the Royals to ditch him. Given his injury history, but incredible upside, teams will be more than willing to spend big in the hopes that Duffy can add some starting pitching depth or at the very least, long reliever capabilities when the postseason rolls around.

Odds that Duffy is traded before July 30: 95 percent

Prediction: Duffy joins the San Francisco Giants

Merrifield is a two-time All-Star and the prototypical leadoff hitter. Seattle Mariners hitters are slashing .198/.238/.365 to begin games. Merrifield is slashing .250/.327/.364 in the same situation. Throw in the fact that Merrifield has recorded a league-leading 25 stolen bases this season and you have yourselves a match made in heaven. The Mariners have already expressed immense interest in Merrifield and it seems pretty clear that if Merrifield is moved, he will be changing his uniform from one hue of blue to another. However, there are tons of teams that could use Merrifield’s skillset and versatility on defense.

Merrifield will also draw a hefty price. Since Merrifield is locked up through 2022 with a club option for 2023 at an average annual value of less than $5 million, he’s a cost-effective solid leadoff man who plays a decent second base and slightly subpar outfield. That’s a good piece to add to any team looking to contend. Kansas City will definitely get a ton of calls regarding their star second baseman.

Odds that Merrifield is traded before July 30: 99 percent

Prediction: Merrifield heads to the Pacific Northwest to join Seattle

Every year, relievers are the most commonly traded asset at the MLB trade deadline. An All-Star left-handed reliever with experience in save situations? Now, that’s a trade piece everyone should have their eye on. Soto has shown that he can operate as a team’s closer, but has also spent much of the season as a middle reliever and/or left-handed specialist. That screams Los Angeles Dodgers to me. Not only has L.A.’s bullpen struggled since the All-Star break, but the team’s biggest competitor in the NL West — the Giants — relies heavily on the strength of their left-handed bats. Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt, Lamonte Wade, Alex Dickerson, and Steven Duggar are all left-handed bats in the middle of that Giants lineup. Against Soto this year, lefties are slashing just .204/.295/.241 and not a single left-handed hitter has hit a home run off Soto.

However, Soto is a cheap bullpen option. He’s set to earn just $567,800 this year, and that makes every team that much more likely to go all in on Soto. He’s a guy that can operate on any level in any bullpen, but would work particularly well as a Javier Lopez-type reliever (San Francisco Giants lefty specialist from 2010 to 2016) coming in to face a team’s best left-handed bats. That’s insanely valuable and should draw tons of calls.

Odds that Soto is traded before July 30: 80 percent

Prediction: Soto joins the Astros’ bullpen

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Pineda. He put together a strong start to the season going 3-2 through his first eight starts with a 2.62 ERA. However, it was obvious that Pineda was getting a little lucky on the bump as his batting average on balls in play against was only .215. Since then, Pineda has gone 2-4 with a 5.86 ERA. Despite that though, Pineda still holds value ahead of the trade deadline.

First off, most of that barely-sub-6 ERA came in just two starts: June 1 against the Orioles (3.0 IP, 7 H, 5 ER) & July 7 against the White Sox (5.1 IP, 12 H, 5 ER). In every other start, Pineda hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER. Pineda is also a solid strike thrower — hitting the strike zone or getting hitters to whiff at 68 percent of pitches he throws. Pineda doesn’t walk people all that often. In fact, he’s only issued 16 free passes across 72.1 innings pitched thus far. That makes him a good innings eater. He’s not going to be a top-of-the-rotation guy, but a team looking for a solid third-or-fourth starter down the final stretch of the season could absolutely use Pineda. Teams that have suffered through a series of injuries to their starting staff should absolutely give Minnesota a call.

Odds that Pineda is traded before July 30: 55 percent

Prediction: Pineda joins the Padres

Aside from Nelson Cruz (who Minnny just sent to Tampa), Berrios was the crown jewel of Minnesota Twins trading chips heading into the Hot Stove season. The two-time All-Star has ace material and has been the best the Twins have had to offer on the mound for four years now. Berrios will head into his third year of arbitration next season. That makes it slightly more likely that Berrios stays with the Twins. However, he has made it clear that he wants a huge extension ahead of the 2022 season. If Minnesota still feels they can compete though (after all, the team is just two years removed from a playoff appearance and they’ve kept most of the pieces from that team), the Twins may be inclined to keep Berrios around. Every World Series contender needs an ace and Berrios has the talent to provide that for Minnesota.

That being said, multiple teams will call to inquire about Berrios. The price will be steep and odds are you’d have to pay a heavy ransom to keep him around for more than one year. Therefore, I don’t see a scenario where Berrios is traded away. Twins fans rejoice! You’ll keep Berrios around until at least the end of the season.

Odds that Berrios is traded before July 30: 35 percent

Prediction: Berrios remains with the Twins

The Twins want to keep Buxton around, and Buxton seems to want to stay in Minnesota. Yet the two parties can’t seem to reach an agreement in their extension talks. Buxton being traded was once considered a long shot. However, it’s a coin flip at this point. He is currently injured, which drives the asking price for teams looking to make a playoff push down dramatically. As of right now, he will not be able to take the field this month and will most likely need to stay sidelined until mid-to-late August. If any team is going to take a risk on Buxton, it’s going to be a team that pretty much has a playoff spot locked up. That makes the Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago White Sox, or Giants the most likely trade candidates. However, his asking price will likely be too high for someone who has played in only 27 games this season. Sure, he’s been an MVP-caliber player when healthy, but he’s constantly sidelined with new injury after new injury. He’ll remain a Twin, and the two sides will likely come to an agreement sometime in the offseason.

Odds that Buxton is traded before July 30: 30 percent

Prediction: Buxton stays in Minnesota

Gallo might be the biggest bat on the market right now. The two-time All-Star is a plate discipline monster. Even though he’s hitting just .222, Gallo is leading the league in walks and currently has an OPS of .864. If he finds himself in a lineup that can offer better protection than Nate Lowe (shouldn’t be too hard to do), Gallo could end up being the most valuable hitter traded at the deadline. While Gallo did have some problems with health in 2019, he’s missed minimal time due to injury throughout the rest of his career. The Yankees need an outfielder to pair with Aaron Judge. Someone that can protect Judge in the lineup and would be an absolute menace with that short porch in right at Yankee Stadium. New York fits the bill perfectly. Already, the Yankees have expressed interest in the Rangers slugger, and they’ll likely be willing to give away more than most other teams would.

To add some sweetness to the pot, Gallo is under team control through the 2022 season, making him more than just a one-year rental. The Yankees would love to have a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder who can stay healthy. He would be a phenomenal fit in pinstripes.

Odds that Gallo is traded before July 30: 85 percent

Prediction: Gallo joins Stanton and Judge in the Bronx

What did happen: Ding! Ding! Ding! We have a winner! As predicted, Joey Gallo goes to New York for minor leaguers Glenn Otto (righty pitcher), Ezequiel Duran (second baseman), Josh Smith (shortstop) and Trevor Hauver (second baseman/outfielder).

Gibby has come out of nowhere in 2021, looking to have the best season of his career at the age of 33. Gibson’s spectacular season, but poor track record would make any team weary of trading away too many resources for him. Much like Gallo, Gibson is also under team control through the 2022 season, which may sound enticing, but his inconsistent track record indicates that it’s unlikely he’ll be able to mimic his success this season in 2022.

All that aside, there are several teams that would be willing to spend big on a solid starting pitcher. The Philadelphia Phillies are just three games out of first place in the NL East, despite having allowed the fifth-most runs in the National League. The only consistent starter for the Phillies this year has been Zack Wheeler. The 2021 All-Star holds an 8-5 record with a 2.37 ERA and currently leads the National League in strikeouts with 160. Aside from Wheeler though, Aaron Nola has been as consistent as a poorly blended smoothie. Zach Eflin’s been hurt, and both Vince Velasquez and Matt Moore have been inadequate to put it nicely. Gibson is a top-of-the-line starter that would slot in very nicely with the Phillies. They’ve failed to live up to expectations ever since acquiring Bryce Harper prior to the 2019 season. If they want to make a move in the NL East, grabbing a starter is the way to go.

Odds that Kyle Gibson is traded before July 30: 80 percent

Prediction: The Phillies snag Gibson

Scherzer is the big fish. He’s the one every MLB fanbase is salivating at the prospect of having. However, the three-time Cy Young winner will almost certainly be a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers by the end of the week. The Dodgers’ starting rotation has been through an absolute whirlwind thus far in 2021. Dustin May is done for the season. Clayton Kershaw is spending time on the IL, and Trevor Bauer most likely won’t see a return to the field as he faces sexual assault charges. While Tony Gonsolin has been a fantastic fill-in starter as members of the team’s staff have disappeared, the Dodgers still need another elite arm to really fill in any holes.

The Dodgers have the most unfair advantage in all of sports — having unlimited money and resources. They are the team best suited to not only take on the remainder of Scherzer’s 2021 salary, but also extend Scherzer once his contract is up following the season. If you don’t believe the Dodgers are the favorites to land Scherzer, maybe this will change your mind:

Scherzer wants to go to the West Coast. While I’m sure the Giants would love to add a healthy, consistent arm to their rotation to pair alongside Kevin Gausman, the Dodgers will outspend San Fran into oblivion until Scherzer is wearing Dodger blue. Expect this move to happen within the next 24 hours.

Odds that Scherzer is traded before July 30: 99 percent

Prediction: Scherzer ends up a Dodger

The upcoming offseason will be a hotbed for elite shortstop talent. Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Javier Baez, Brandon Crawford, Andrelton Simmons, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien will all be available. However, Trea Turner will be in his fourth year of arbitration. Do you know how valuable that would be? To be able to have first crack at one of the game’s elite shortstops before an offseason that will be chock full of elite shortstop talent? That would be insane, and will drive the price for Turner up tremendously compared to the competition.

Yes, Turner just tested positive for COVID-19, but that only marginally takes away from his trade value. The Seattle Mariners have been the most recent team linked to the Nationals’ shortstop, but given how close the Mariners and Royals are rumored to be involving a trade for Whit Merrifield, I doubt the M’s would go all-in on both. Rather, the team that would stand the most to gain from adding Turner would be Seattle’s division rival, Oakland. A’s shortstops are slugging just .316 with an OPS+ of 66 (that’s really bad). Turner is one of the most gifted offensive shortstops in the game, and would add a much-needed punch to a lineup that ranks near the middle of the league in runs per game. The A’s aren’t afraid of making big deals at the deadline either. Over the last decade, the A’s have made numerous deadline trades that shook up the league. The most notable being the addition of Jon Lester in 2014. This deal would blow that one out of the water though. However, Oakland has had trouble getting over the hump once they reach the playoffs. Perhaps a move like this is just what the doctor ordered.

Odds that Turner is traded before July 30: 70 percent

Prediction: Turner joins the Athletics

The Astros, Phillies, Yankees, and Giants seem to be the main participants in the Starling Marte sweepstakes. Marte’s strong track record and solid 2021 season are sure to make many teams across the league give Miami an offer. While earlier this season, it seemed unlikely that the Marlins and Marte would part ways, Miami has been unable to come to terms with the 2016 All-Star, thus making a split between these two parties virtually inevitable. Marte is currently sporting an OPS+ of 135 — eight points higher than his career-high set in 2014. While the Yankees would be a great fit, I doubt the Bombers would go after Marte should they land Gallo like I suspect they will. The Phillies on the other hand have expressed their intent to be “aggressive” at the deadline. The Phillies need a center fielder with how poorly Odubel Herrera is doing at the plate. Marte might just be their guy.

Odds that Marte is traded before July 30: 90 percent

Prediction: Marte gets shipped to Philadelphia

What did happen: Marte was shipped to Oakland Wednesday for lefty Jesus Luzardo.

Kris Bryant has been arguably the best third baseman in the National League this year. It seems as though every single team has expressed some sort of interest in the 2016 NL MVP, and who could blame them? Even if Bryant was a non-factor at the plate, his defensive versatility makes him a fit on almost every single ball club. Luckily, Bryant is also an incredible hitter making a trade for the four-time All-Star all the more enticing.

The Rays have been one of the most active teams going after Bryant. However, their interest in Bryant has not been proven sincere yet, and the Rays could just be attempting to drive Bryant’s price up. The Rays would be a good fit though. Collectively, the Tampa Bay outfield has a wRC+ of 100 — league average. Their third basemen have put together a wRC+ of just 102, slightly above league average. Bryant would be a huge upgrade at whatever position the Rays choose to play him at. That said, given that the Rays have already shipped away multiple prospects in acquiring Nelson Cruz from the Minnesota Twins, a trade of this caliber would likely fall to a team that has more to give right now. That team is the Chicago White Sox. The ChiSox are pretty much set in regards to their pitching staff. They could use a little help adding depth to their bullpen, but those moves can be addressed in smaller trades. The big move however, will be the addition of Bryant.

Ever since the White Sox lost second baseman, Nick Madrigal, the White Sox needed someone to fill that hole. Yoan Moncada has been playing most of this season at the hot corner, but could definitely make the move to second should Bryant come to town. Moncada has played over 1700 innings at second base throughout his career.

Odds that Kris Bryant is traded before July 30: 95 percent

Prediction: Kris Bryant doesn’t have to go far as he joins the White Sox

If Rizzo does get traded, it will be to the Boston Red Sox. First base is supposed to be a power position. Yet the Red Sox have somehow managed to make it the least powerful position in their lineup. Currently, Red Sox first basemen are slashing just .219/.261/.388. That .261 on-base percentage is the worst of any team in Major League Baseball. If anyone needs Rizzo, it’s Boston. That said, with just three days left before the trade deadline, the Red Sox and Cubs have only had “ preliminary talks” regarding Rizzo. Per Jeff Passan of ESPN, the circle of interest regarding Rizzo has been “not so robust.”

While the Red Sox certainly have the prospects necessary to make a move for Rizzo, this would pretty much be an all-or-nothing World Series bid for Boston. Their farm system is not that deep, and since Rizzo will become a free agent once the season ends, Boston would be giving up several top-tier prospects for a rental. Only a World Series title would make that rental worth it. I doubt Boston would be willing to take that risk.

Odds that Rizzo is traded before July 30: 10 percent

Prediction: Rizzo remains a Cub

Now, here’s a Cub the Red Sox can get behind. As solid as Matt Barnes has been as the team’s primary closer, he’s still a question mark as the team’s closer down the line. Kimbrel has reinvigorated his career in 2021 after atrocious 2019 and 2020 campaigns. Much of his improvement can be attributed to mechanical adjustments as well as Kimbrel fixing a tell he developed in 2019.

Per reports, the Red Sox are one of seven teams to have shown “ serious interest” in the Cubs closer. How he would fit into the Boston bullpen, I don’t know. With how dominant Matt Barnes (22 saves) has been, Kimbrel would likely serve as a setup man or perhaps a non-save situation guy who comes in to preserve four-or-five-run leads. Either way, despite one unlucky postseason in Beantown, Kimbrel had a solid stint in Boston between 2016 and 2018 — earning All-Star nods in every season with the Red Sox. I’m sure he’d be welcomed back with open arms.

Odds that Kimbrel is traded before July 30: 80 percent

Prediction: Kimbrel returns to Fenway for the Red Sox

I truly believe that if the A’s are going to go all-out any season, it will be this one. Not only would a deep playoff run further convince the city of Oakland to approve the team’s waterfront ballpark project — a dream scenario for Oakland A’s president Dave Kaval — but it would also give the team’s fans more reason to be excited for future seasons. The A’s have made the playoffs each of the last three seasons, but have not made a splash in any. In fact, prior to 2020, the A’s had lost 12 straight potential series-clinching games. Fans have grown tired of the disappointment, but the addition of a solid closer like Rodriguez would give them hope once again.

Despite the Athletics having one of the deeper bullpens in baseball, they haven’t had a bona-fide closer all season since Trevor Rosenthal went down in spring training. Jake Diekman and Lou Trivino have done fine splitting time in that role, but adding another solid arm to compete for the closer spot is never a bad thing. Rodriguez may not have the overwhelming strikeout filth that most managers like to see from their closers, but that hasn’t stopped him from being one of the most consistent finishers in the league. He wouldn’t even have to be the team’s closer to see success. Rodriguez began his career as a setup man, and prior to 2021 (when Rodriguez took over the Pirates’ closer role), he’d put together a 3.41 ERA across 163.2 innings pitched. He’s only gotten better over time. He’d be a versatile fit in Oakland’s bullpen.

Odds that Rodriguez is traded before July 30: 65 percent

Prediction: The Oakland A’s go in on Rodriguez

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote a week ago that the Pirates have no intention of trading away outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Rather, the Pirates “intend to build around him.” That’s all well and good, but surely several teams will put together their best offers for the Pirates’ best hitter of 2021 (I said what I said). However, even with several teams calling Pittsburgh asking about Reynolds, the Pirates have not budged. Currently, Reynolds seems to be an unattainable target. He’ll remain a Pirate.

Odds that Reynolds is traded before July 30: 1 percent

Prediction: Reynolds stays a Pirate

Escobar to the White Sox was almost a done deal earlier this week, but multiple teams have since jumped in with their own offers for the D-Backs’ lone All-Star representative. Escobar is viewed as a cheaper alternative to Kris Bryant. He’s not as good as Bryant, but if you can get an All-Star-caliber player for fewer prospects, you’ll take that any day of the week.

Given Escobar’s versatility in the infield, he fits almost perfectly into every lineup in the league. However, a team that could really use Escobar is the Mets. Everyone knows the Mets have relied pretty heavily on their starting pitching to carry them thus far. The Mets rank 28th in the league in runs per game — averaging just 3.88 per, 0.15 lower than the next closest team above .500, the St. Louis Cardinals. While the infield hasn’t been the main reason for the Mets’ offensive woes, adding Escobar would surely help.

Odds that Escobar is traded before July 30: 98 percent

Prediction: Escobar finds a new home in Queens

What did happened: Escobar finds a new home in Mee-lee-wau instead, as he was dealt to the Brewers for outfielder Cooper Hummel and infielder Alberto Ciprian.

Much like several balls he hit during the Home Run Derby this year, Story will be leaving Coors Field very soon. The first team that comes to mind when wondering where Story will land is Milwaukee. The Brewers’ addition of Willy Adames in late May has paid tremendous dividends, and I don’t see the Brewers moving Adames to the bench to make way for Story. However, the Brewers have stated that if they acquire Story, they would look to play him at third. This move makes way too much sense, and fits way too well for a team whose third basemen have accumulated just a .703 OPS thus far into the season.

The Brewers definitely have the starting rotation and bullpen to compete with the best in the National League. However, with the uninspiring play of Christian Yelich thus far, the Brew Crew has had to rely on hitters like Adames and Omar Narvaez for runs. That won’t cut it in the playoffs. Story is the perfect piece the Brewers need to really put them over the edge. Put him behind Yelich, and hey, maybe that protection will bring Yelich’s bat into the fold as well. Wouldn’t that be something?

Odds that Story is traded before July 30: 95 percent

Prediction: The Brewers snag Story

Every season is supposed to be the breakout season for the Rockies starter. Every year several analysts praise Gray for what he brings to the table and then Gray fails to meet expectations. Despite all that, several people in the baseball world believe Gray can still be an ace. He’s shown signs of greatness. Despite playing in notoriously hitter-friendly and thin air of Coors Field for his entire career, Gray has put together two seasons with an ERA under four and is currently working on his third.

The Toronto Blue Jays seem to be the team most interested. However, the Jays seem more interested in building their bullpen by trading for guys like Colorado’s Mychal Givens and Daniel Bard instead. That’s a trade that would cost less than Gray and would arguably help the Blue Jays out more. It’s a toss-up whether or not Gray will be traded before Friday. As of right now, it seems the market is a little too thin, and Gray will remain in Denver for the time being.

Odds that Gray is traded before July 30: 50 percent

Prediction: Gray remains a Rockie