Best 12 vs 5 NCAA Tournament Upset Picks for 2026 March Madness

The 12 versus 5 matchup in the tournament is always the trendy upset pick, but that might not be the case this season. 

The five seeds look very strong, while the twelve seeds will be fighting a steeper up hill climbin than usual. With that being said, five seeds have only gone undefeated five times since 2000, so having one upset on your bracket is probably a smart call. 

Here are the twelve seeds that I think have the best chance to play Cinderella in the first round.

#12 UNI (+470) vs #5 St. John’s -10.5

St. John’s is a dark-horse final-four team on a lot of brackets at the moment. The Big East champions, led by Rick Pitino, play a completely different brand of basketball from UNI. St John’s is going to speed the game up by applying full-court pressure and creating turnovers and extra possessions on offensive rebounds. The Panthers, on the other hand, play at the third-slowest tempo in the nation and the slowest of any team in the tournament.

In March, if you can limit the total number of possessions in a game, while shooting efficiently, you’ve got a great chance of pulling off an upset. UNI shot 41% from three over their four-game run through the Missouri Valley Conference to steal the conference as the 6 seed. St John’s played some of their best basketball in the Big East tournament, but we saw that happen last season, and then the Johnnies faltered out early, when they weren’t able to speed up the game in the tournament. 

Too many people have St. John’s going on a deep run when they should be far more worried about this first-round matchup.

#12 Akron (+260) vs #5 Texas Tech -7.5

Akron is one of the trendy 12 seeds this season. They’re a veteran team, making their third straight appearance in the tournament, while Texas Tech can be a great team, but their ceiling feels very limited with the injury to their leader, JT Toppin.

The Zips have been a bit of a KenPom darling all season long. 

They had been the highest-ranked MAC team despite losing to undefeated Miami in the regular season. Akron and Texas Tech have the closest margin in KenPom ratings among the 12 vs 5 games because Akron has been such an efficient offense all season. They shoot threes at 38.5% and can keep pace with a Texas Tech team that scores 80 points per game. The only reason I don’t have this in my No. 1 slot is Texas Tech’s defense. 

Their entire game plan relies on them preventing threes, and if Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott struggle to generate offense in the paint, the Red Raiders could beat up on an off-shooting Zips squad.

#12 High Point (+390) vs #5 Wisconsin -10.5

Unlike the first two games mentioned, I would be very shocked to see upsets in these next two games. Similar to Akron, High Point is a popular upset pick this season. Everyone is looking at their 30-4 record and 10th-ranked offense in the nation in points per game, and believes they can pull off the upset. I don’t think there’s much of a chance that happens.

High Point is going to shoot a ton of threes and try to turn you over, but I think that plays right into Wisconsin’s strengths. 

Nick Boyd is one of the best guards in the country, and the exact type of player you want leading your team in the tournament. He averaged 25 points a night in the Big 10 tournament, and 6 times. He’s the type of player Wisconsin can look to in big moments to control the game score at will against a bad Panthers defense. There’s a reason the largest discrepancy of KenPom ratings comes from these two in the twelve versus five round. The Badgers are a very solid team, and if they had Nolan Winter, they would have been a dark-horse Final Four team for me. Still, I definitely like them here in the round of 64.

McNeese St (+520) vs Vanderbilt -11.5

Maybe I’m still too caught up on the horrible performance McNeese St had in the tournament last season, but I don’t think they have any chance to pull this upset off. Vanderbilt is one of the most underseeded teams in March Madness, but they were paired with a Cowboys team that they match up exceedingly well with.

I don’t love it when underdogs need to rely on turnovers to win games in March. The Cowboys have a surprisingly efficient defense (41st in the country) but an offense that barely makes it into the top 100. I also don’t love an efficient small-conference defense that can't translate that same level of success when they play against a team as strong as Vanderbilt. The Commodores have such great guard play with Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner, and I don’t see them turning the ball over enough to keep McNeese St in this. I love Vanderbilt in this game at -11.5, and I also don’t mind them as a Final Four team at +1100.