Best Bets for UFC 318: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier & More

The much-anticipated retirement fight for Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier goes down Saturday night in New Orleans.

While the main event won’t start until the early hours of Sunday morning, the UFC 318 card is loaded with betting opportunities. Here are our best betting picks and predictions for the event:

Max Holloway (-130) vs. Dustin Poirier

All good things must come to an end. Poirier has said he’s been fully committed to this fight camp and that the emotional weight of his last professional bout hasn’t been overwhelming. Still, I don’t think this version of Holloway is the kind of opponent you can beat while having one foot in the door and one foot out.

Holloway is 0-2 against Poirier, but one of those losses came in 2012, and the other was a five-round war in 2019. With one final shot to get his lick back on Poirier for good, I expect Holloway to capture a victory — likely by unanimous decision in a stand-and-bang special.

Pick: Holloway ML (-130)

Jimmy Crute ML (-340) / By Submission (+170) vs. Marcin Prachnio

Prachnio is a mediocre wrestler with average takedown defense — not a great formula against Crute’s high-level grappling skills. The New Zealander should be able to get Prachnio down early and often, and control the fight from there.

I expect Crute to succeed on his initial takedown attempts, which will tire Prachnio out and eventually lead to a second-round submission. You can play the moneyline to stay safe, but the value is clearly on the submission prop.

Pick: Crute by submission (+170)

Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber – Over 1.5 Rounds

Zellhuber is a slow-paced, technical striker who lacks consistent knockdown power and rarely chases takedowns or submissions. Five of his last six fights have gone the distance, with the lone finish being an anaconda choke win against Christian Giagos in September 2023.

On the other side, Johnson has strong takedown defense and hasn’t been finished since 2023. Three of his last five fights have ended by decision. This fight has sneaky “Fight of the Night” potential — which usually means we’re getting over the 1.5-round mark.

Pick: Over 1.5 rounds (-150)