Best NBA Playoff Bets, Player Props for Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 7: May 18th

It’s a big day in the NBA. Why? Because we’ve got a Game 7 on deck between two excellent teams: the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets.

For a game of this magnitude, I was eager to dive in and create my “Best NBA Playoff Bets” list.

The winner will face the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals on Tuesday. As for the loser—well, you know. Anyway, let’s check out the list (odds via FanDuel unless otherwise noted):

Denver Nuggets (+270) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-8.5), o/u 213.5

This has been a wildly entertaining and competitive series. Game 7 will likely put the other six games to bed with its intensity and drama, with the stakes sky-high. In games like this, experience can be key—and the Nuggets have plenty of it.

The Thunder? Not so much.

Nikola Jokic already looks dialed in and ready for battle, but he’ll likely find another gear in this one. The same is probably true for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The difference-maker will likely be which team’s supporting cast shows up and matches that level of play.

From what we’ve seen so far, Jokic’s supporting group is more likely to step up than SGA’s. But I fully expect this to be a close, competitive game, which is why I’m taking Denver and the points instead of the Nuggets moneyline.

Pick: Nuggets +8.5

Nuggets vs. Thunder Player Props

Nikola Jokic, OVER 52.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-110)

All of his player prop totals feel a little high, but they’re not numbers that are impossible—or even especially difficult—for him to hit. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him do well in all three categories.

If anyone is going to elevate their game in Game 7, it’s Jokic. He may not clear every individual stat line, but he’s going to be close in all of them if he doesn’t.

Russell Westbrook, UNDER 10.5 Points (-104)

He’s not the player he once was. He averaged 12.2 points per game during the season and scored 10-plus in the first two games of the series. But he’s essentially disappeared over the last four, failing to break double digits.

There’s no reason to believe he’ll go over 10 this time.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OVER 32.5 Points (+110)

I’m a little bullish on this one. SGA cleared 30.5 in his last two games (31 and 32 points) and went over 32.5 in Games 1 and 2.

We’re talking about a trip to the Western Conference finals here. Rather than rely on teammates who’ve been shaky at times, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him try to take over.

Chet Holmgren, OVER 9.5 Rebounds (-114)

He averaged eight rebounds per game in the regular season, but he’s been a man on a mission in the playoffs. Holmgren has grabbed double-digit boards in four of his last five games. In the series against Denver, he went 2-for-4 in hitting the over, and he had a solid showing in the series vs. Memphis, too.

He’s proven himself capable. With a trip to the conference finals on the line, I expect him to get to 10 boards.