MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants, April 26th

Tough under bet to drop last night after getting the desired bounce-back outings from Chris Sale and Zac Gallen. However, neither was at his sharpest, making that a deserved loss to snap our over/under winning streak. Hopefully a new one spurs today.

Our efforts will play out in the Bay Area this afternoon for a nationally televised game on FOX. The Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants will play the sandwich affair of their three-game series, and it’s one that sports a real quality pitching matchup that probably deserves a little more respect from the oddsmakers in terms of the total.

Featuring an over/under of 8, an argument could easily be made that this one is a bit higher than it should be. After all, games emanating from pitcher-friendly Oracle Park will often draw totals of 7 or 7.5, so to label this one with a far more infrequent 8 is certainly illuminating.

We’ll try and make the books pay — literally — with such an odd miscalculation, and our cause should include two quality showings from the starting pitchers.

First, let’s take note of the return of Tyler Mahle and his impressive beginning to the year. Technically, he made his comeback from Tommy John surgery late last season but only would make a few starts before being shut down for the campaign.

This is Mahle’s first full season back in the bigs after receiving only eight starting assignments combined the previous two years, and it’s been a real dandy. How about that microscopic 0.68 ERA he’s put together to lead the entire sport?

Yes, only two runs have been scored off the ninth-year right-hander in 26 2/3 innings. And he’s currently working on a consecutive scoreless-inning streak, too. Entering today’s outing, Mahle hasn’t allowed a run in his last 16 2/3 frames — an impressive stretch that also includes him blanking the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers for seven of those innings.

If you’re truly a veteran diehard baseball bettor, you should recall Mahle in his solid earlier years with the Cincinnati Reds, in which he did display All-Star potential. The last time Mahle made 30-plus starts in a season — four years ago — he turned in a 13-6, 3.75 ERA performance while finishing top-10 in the league in strikeouts with 210 Ks.

Now that he’s healthy and has regained his strength to throw closer to pre-injury velocity, Mahle is a legitimate force again in a major league rotation, and there’s no indication he’ll suddenly stray away from that anytime soon. Pitching in San Francisco for this date can even provide a boost.

The counterpart, Robbie Ray, is another veteran experiencing a renaissance in 2025. Like Mahle, the former National League Cy Young Award winner was a bit of a forgotten man entering the current campaign after making only eight starts the last two seasons.

Although he’s been a little too prone to walks, Ray has provided mostly quality work in his five turns. The left-hander’s strikeouts have remained high, punching out more than a batter per inning, and he’s doing it while limiting opposing hitters to a harmless .225 average.

His next opponent could be one that permits Ray to get away with shaky command. The Rangers draw the fewest walks per game (2.19) in all of baseball, which has undoubtedly played a role in the fact that they’re also the lowest-scoring team in the majors as well. Corey Seager is currently on the sidelines with an injury, and with the continued struggles of middle-of-the-order hitter Joc Pederson, Texas is clearly going through struggles at the plate. That won’t change against Ray.

Pick: UNDER 8 (-115, DraftKings)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 18-16-1, -0.81 unit
Over/Unders: 16-11-1
Props: 2-4
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Diamondbacks Under 8.5 (loss)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.