Last night, we showed you what needed to happen for the USMNT to advance to the next round of the World Cup. Now we have a similar chart showing how things shake out depending on the results of this afternoon's Group A matches.
The only certainty in this group is that Cameroon are out. The other three teams all have a shot to reach the Round of 16. We'll look at each team individually.
In the vast majority of possible permutations, Brazil advance. As long as they win or tie against Cameroon, they are in. If Mexico win, Brazil are in. Their biggest threat to missing the next round is if they lose to Cameroon, and Mexico and Croatia tie. If that happens, Brazil are out. Basically, if they don't lose, they're fine.
Mexico's path is also pretty straightforward. As long as they avoid defeat, they will make it through. Lose to Croatia, though, and they're probably getting bounced. They survive with a loss today only if Cameroon beat Brazil and goal differential or another tiebreaker favors them over Brazil.
Croatia pretty much have to win, can't lose, but could possibly survive with a draw. If they win they are in. They can survive with a draw if Brazil lose.
Chart by Reuben Fischer-Baum