Colin Kaepernick had an awful game Sunday night throwing three interceptions, fumbling once, and getting sacked four times. Sometimes, broad game stats can mask situational competence, but not here. According to data from Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics, Kaerpernick's interception at the beginning of the fourth quarter was the most detrimental play in the NFL Sunday as it lowered the 49ers' Win Probability 27 percent.
Burke's Win Probability is more or less the industry standard and measures a variety of things, like time remaining, score, down, distance, and so on. In Kaepernick's subpar performance, he had two of the top ten plays that most lowered any team's Win Probability. His second fourth-quarter interception lowered the 49ers' Win Probability 17 percent.
In the other direction, Brian Hoyer had two of the most positive plays of the week in Cleveland's win over New Orleans. His completion to Andrew Hawkins that set up the game-winning field goal increased Cleveland's Win Probability 54 percent. Earlier on that drive, Hoyer's completion to Miles Austin increased Cleveland's Win Probability 23 percent.
Here are the most and least helpful plays of the week.
|Brian Hoyer pass to Andrew Hawkins for 28 yards||CLV||0.54||2.54||4||0:13||2||10||39|
|Austin Davis pass deep right to Austin Pettis for 27 yards||STL||0.40||2.91||4||1:55||3||9||52|
|Aaron Rodgers pass to Jordy Nelson for 80 yard touchdown||GB||0.25||5.96||3||2:21||1||10||80|
|Steve Weatherford punt for 45 yards, returned for 71 yard touchdown by Ted Ginn||ARZ||0.24||5.8||4||10:28||4||6||74|
|Brian Hoyer pass to Miles Austin for 12 yards||CLV||0.23||0.8||4||0:19||1||10||52|
|Colin Kaepernick pass intercepted Kyle Fuller at SF 26, returned 20 yards to SF 6||SF||-0.27||-6.08||4||13:29||1||10||78|
|Alex Smith incomplete pass inteded for Dwayne Bowe||KC||-0.21||-1.78||4||0:18||4||2||2|
|Zac Stacy run for 1 yard||SL||-0.20||-0.40||4||3:43||1||10||69|
|Eli Manning pass to Rashad Jennings for 2 yards, fumble, recovered by ARZ-Rashad Johnson for no gain||NYG||-0.18||-3.74||4||4:42||2||10||17|
|Matt Cassel pass intercepted by Devin McCourty, returned 60 yards to the MIN 1 yard line||MIN||-0.18||-5.32||1||7:16||2||16||85|
|Drew Brees intercepted by Tashaun Gipson, returned for 62 yard touchdown||NO||-0.18||-8.00||2||3:37||1||10||56|