College Football Semifinals 2026 Betting Picks and Predictions

If you asked someone at the start of the year who would make the Final Four, they would be completely chastised if they predicted Indiana, Oregon, Miami, and Ole Miss.

It’s been a complete season of chaos in college football, and we’ve worked our way into a very exciting Final Four, with two fun semifinal matchups.

Let’s get into the picks and previews of these games.

#10 Miami (-3.5) vs. #6 Ole Miss

Total: 52.5

The SEC has had an abysmal bowl season, while the ACC has put together a very solid one, sitting at 8-4. Miami has been the biggest winner out of any team in the country, as they’ve been able to cultivate an entirely new image for themselves in the postseason.

They’ve leaned on their elite defensive line to take over games, and the offense has done enough to get the job done.

The biggest surprise for me with Miami is how well they’ve done running the ball. Carson Beck has played well in the playoffs, mostly as a game manager, but Mark Fletcher Jr. has had his two best games of the season against Texas A&M and Ohio State.

Miami’s inability to run the ball was my biggest concern for them heading into the playoffs, and they’ve managed to fix that issue while thriving under the bright lights.

Unfortunately for the red-hot Hurricanes, Ole Miss feels like they can cause issues for an elite defensive front. Ole Miss is the fastest-tempo team left in the playoffs, and they can use that to their advantage to slow down Reuben Bain Jr., Akheem Mesidor, and the rest of this Miami defensive front.

Ohio State was at its best running tempo against Miami and not letting them rotate their defensive front. You can tire them if you play a clean, up-tempo style, which is what Trinidad Chambliss will be looking to do.

Beck will have to be more than a game manager against the Rebels, and I just don’t see that happening. Against my better judgment, I think Ole Miss and Pete Golden continue to prove Lane Kiffin wrong and make a run for the title.

Pick: Ole Miss +3.5 and u52.5

#5 Oregon vs. #1 Indiana (-3.5)

Total: 47.5

The first semifinal game might be more fun for the viewer, but if you love hard-nose, ground-and-pound football, this game is the one for you.

Indiana dominated the first matchup between these two teams by confusing Dante Moore with unique blitzes and getting home with their linebackers.

If you look at the box score from Oregon’s last game against Texas Tech, you would think those issues would have been solved, but I am very concerned that Oregon will again struggle with the blitz. They only got two sacks on Moore, but they still pressured him all game long.

All season long, Moore has been at his worst against teams that can dial up pressure, and I don’t see why Indiana won’t be able to do that again in their rematch.

Indiana’s defense has been playing at an elite level. The run defense has been great all year, but just had their most impressive outing of the season, holding Alabama to just 23 yards on the ground.

In the first matchup between these teams, Oregon did find success running the ball but struggled to stay on schedule passing, so they weren’t able to run it as much as they should have.

My biggest question is whether Oregon can keep its offense on schedule so they’re dealing with short third downs. I just don’t think they can.

On the other side, I trust Fernando Mendozza. It’s not a very hot take to say that you trust the Heisman winner to win you a big game, but I just think this guy’s a winner.

Sometimes in the biggest games, you just need to have a winner to get you your biggest wins, and that’s what Mendozza will do.

Pick: Indiana -3.5 and u47.5