College Football Week 3 Best Bets: Pitt vs. WVU, USF vs. Miami, and More

A Week 3 slate heavy on FBS vs. FCS matchups and assorted other contests with astronomical lines isn’t without its gems.

The return of a storied rivalry, a potential College Football Playoff elimination game for last season’s national runner-up and the continued gauntlet of a surprise rising from the Sunshine State highlight the Sept. 13 slate.

Pitt -7.5 at West Virginia (Consensus)

Congratulations to everyone who jumped on this year’s edition of the Backyard Brawl when it opened with the homestanding Mountaineers at just 1.5-point underdogs.

Still, there remains plenty of value with Pitt even after the number jumped following West Virginia’s 17-10 loss to Ohio last week. As of this writing, most mainstream books rose to the visiting Panthers as 7.5-point favorites. Much like Pitt’s selection at No. 9 in the preseason ACC media poll, the public may well be underestimating the Panthers.

Pitt’s first two opponents, Duquesne and Central Michigan, are not exactly the most telling measuring sticks. Still, the Panthers handled business effectively, breezing past the 37.5- and 21.5-point spreads in each. Central Michigan threatened in the second half after Pitt let off the gas, leading 24-3 early, but the Panthers recovered starting with a 48-yard Eli Holstein touchdown pass.

The dual-threat playmaker Holstein is the kind of quarterback more synonymous with West Virginia coach Rich Rodriguez’s preferred offensive style. In Rodriguez’s return to Morgantown, veteran Nicco Marchiol is behind center in his first season as a starter.

Marchiol’s output through two starts has been pedestrian, with one touchdown and an interception through the air and just a 2.7-yard per carry average. The Mountaineers averaged 2.6 yards a carry as a team last week at Ohio, a concerning number when evaluating West Virginia’s prospects of moving the ball against a talented Pitt defense.

All-American linebacker Kyle Louis has already racked up 3.5 tackles for loss to lead a Panthers defense allowing one yard per carry through the first two contests. The Pitt front seven is as good as any West Virginia will see this season.

While strange things happen in the Backyard Brawl — which few know better than Rodriguez, having been denied a shot at the 2007 season’s national championship with a stunning loss to Pitt — the Panthers should win by the two-plus scores needed to cover.

USF +17 at Miami (Bally and BetRivers)

From being left off at least one Associated Press Top 25 ballot to remaining a three-score underdog with its in-state showdown at Miami, USF heads into Week 3 perhaps the most slept-on team in college football.

No other squad can boast wins over two Top 25 opponents at the time of matchup. Maybe that is as reflective of the flawed polling system as it is indicative of the Bulls, but it doesn’t lessen that Alex Golesh had them looking pretty darn impressive against Boise State and Florida.

USF bullied Boise State, the only score allowed coming off of a fourth-down gamble in the first quarter that gave the Broncos possession in USF territory. Similarly, Florida’s lone touchdown in Week 2 came on a short field.

The Bulls tenacious defense fueled an 18-16 win and snapped Florida’s five-game winning streak. The same defense can keep USF competitive in Week 3 at Miami.

The Hurricanes are the most talented offense USF has seen yet — and probably will see all season. Georgia transfer quarterback Carson Beck has yet to struggle with turnovers, as was the most vexing problem for him a season ago with the Bulldogs, but that could be an opening for USF to attack.

Winning the turnover battle may prove central to USF staying within a score. For those bullish on the underdogs garnering enough good fortune to have better field position than it did a week ago, when all but two drives started at their own 25 or further back, the +525 money line at DraftKings may be worth your consideration.

Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love 100 or more yards vs. Texas A&M, +174 (FanDuel)

Notre Dame’s aforementioned loss at Miami hardly disqualifies the Fighting Irish from a return trip to the Playoff — losing at home to Northern Illinois a season ago didn’t prevent them from advancing to the National Championship Game, after all.

Falling into a 0-2 hole with losses against what initially appear to be the two marquee dates on Notre Dame’s schedule, however, would seriously complicate the Irish’s path.

There’s sure to be a heightened sense of urgency for Notre Dame in its home opener, especially with almost two weeks for the Miami loss to stew.

Notre Dame’s offense could only muster seven points for three and a half quarters at Miami, a byproduct of the Hurricanes limiting preseason Heisman Trophy contender Jeremiyah Love to just 3.3 yards per carry.

Against a Texas A&M defense that surrendered 6.2 yards per carry to UTSA in Week 1, this could be Love’s opportunity to break away from the slow start. The Aggies were considerably better against the run last week vs. Utah State, holding the Aggies to 2.2 yards per carry and 78 for the game, but can expect a more effective passing game when it faces the Irish this week.

Plenty relies on a better showing from the Notre Dame offensive line than it had in Week 1. Coach Marcus Freeman said at his Tuesday press conference that the unit, “will be fine.”

Expect the front five to show up for Love in a high-pressure on Saturday.