Debunking NBA Playoff Narratives and Breaking Down Award Races

As we enter the and-1 final week of the NBA regular season, there’s still much to be decided.

It’s just not what we’re being led to believe.

The promos say …

• The Thunder and Spurs will duel to the finish to determine the top seed in the West.

Not true: Even though they would lose a tie-breaker, Oklahoma City, with the Jazz, a crippled Lakers team and a struggling Clippers squad as its next three opponents, has this thing wrapped up. Put them on TV next Sunday and you’re likely to get a whole lot of Brooks Barnhizer.

• The Lakers, Nuggets and Rockets will do everything they can to avoid finishing fifth in the West.

Not true: While the third- and fourth-place teams will earn home-court advantage in the first round, these squads – along with No. 6 Minnesota – are so evenly matched, the site really shouldn’t matter. Big picture, the third-place team – if it can survive the Timberwolves – then gets the Spurs in Round 2 … and who wants that?

• The Cavaliers can benefit from passing the Knicks for third in the East.

Not true: The third seed – after a tough first-round matchup – would get the red-hot Celtics in Round 2. It says here: You’re better off landing fourth, where you possibly luck into Atlanta in the first round, then get the Pistons in the Eastern semifinals.

• The scramble for play-in spots in both conferences is wide-open.

Actually, this is true: But all are glorified lottery teams that will be nothing more than cannon fodder for the Thunder, Spurs, Pistons and Celtics in Round 1. So who cares?

In other words, there isn’t a single must-watch matchup on the docket next Sunday, when the NBA has clumped all its games into two TV windows, hoping to double-dip on meaningful stuff.

So, you might be asking, what then is left to get excited about?

The NBA’s major awards are all up for grabs, with one signature performance – especially as a lasting impression in the regular-season finale – quite possibly making the difference.

Unfortunately, the NBA’s silly 65-game rule has already dampened the enthusiasm on what should be considered major accomplishments.

So instead of simply looking at the candidates for the two most glamorous awards, let’s examine how shifting importance to total points – not total games – could have resulted in a fantastic finish and multiple must-see matchups in Game 82.

2026 NBA MVP

Sadly, one of the toughest decisions in recent hardware history is being caught up in: Will Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama make it to 65 games? It didn’t have to be this way.

If the NBA simply would switch over to totals rather than averages in citing statistical leaders – you know, like baseball and football do in basically every category – it would demonstrate the importance of showing up without disqualifying anybody.

It’s interesting to note that Luka Doncic leads the NBA in scoring. But since he’s injured and done for the regular season, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, just 91 points behind with five games left, has a great opportunity to seize the league’s most prestigious statistical crown.

That has to be worth something. As does the Thunder’s best record in the league and SGA’s likely spot on an NBA All-Defense team.

Jokic will win the assists title, but all those games he’s missed have cost him on the rebounds (fourth place) and scoring (10th) lists. Those aren’t MVP-level achievements.

And then there’s Wemby. He’ll be the blocks king, but he’s even farther behind in rebounds (fifth) and scoring (18th).

Total points – coupled with Defensive Player of the Year consideration and the most overachieving of the elite teams – point out why Jaylen Brown, currently third in scoring, is actually a better candidate than the two big men.

If SGA, who played his 65th game Thursday, were to take a game off this week, the door would be open for Brown, already with a 50-point game to his credit, to go nuts in the finale against the Magic and steal the scoring crown George Gervin-style.

I’d tune in for that … and maybe later on when SGA would be forced to counter-punch in an otherwise unwatchable pre-playoff exhibition against the Suns.

My pick: Gilgeous-Alexander.

Rookie of the Year

Here’s where the focus on the 65-game qualification is likely to produce the wrong winner.

Cooper Flagg reached 65 with a record-setting, 51-point explosion Friday against the Mavericks. Some believe that clinched the award.

But reaching this so-called magic number is only serving to detract from the fact that college teammate Kon Knueppel has had a better – and certainly more complete – season. He’s shown up WAY more often (77 games) and has helped lead a surprisingly entertaining team (the Hornets) rather than compiling big numbers for a bad club (Flagg’s Mavericks) that hasn’t scored a meaningful point all season.

Most importantly, unless things go completely sideways in the final week, Knueppel will win the rookie scoring title. He begins play Sunday with a 101-point lead, while only trailing Flagg by insignificant amounts in rebounds and assists.

The problem is: Knueppel couldn’t possibly have to deal with a harsher gauntlet than what’s in front of him – the Timberwolves, Celtics, Pistons and Knicks, all defensive stalwarts.

A couple more Flagg 40’s could make the finale – against a defenseless team already in fishing gear (the Bulls) – potentially historic.

Again I say: I’d tune in both early (Hornets-Knicks) and late (Bulls-Mavericks).

My pick: Knueppel.