Did the World Baseball Classic Hurt MLB Starting Pitchers?

We all know it’s wrong to overreact to Opening Day.

Just because new Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe bashed two homers off the Mets’ Freddy Peralta on Thursday does not mean he will hit more than 300 for the year.

Just because Hall of Fame-bound starter Paul Skenes didn’t make it out of the first inning of the same game does not mean his ERA will be in the 67.50 neighborhood at season’s end.

Small sample sizes are essentially irrelevant in baseball, if not life itself.

However…should we start questioning how pitching in the World Baseball Classic might adversely affect hurlers over the long haul — specifically starters?

Did World Baseball Classic Hurt Starting Pitchers?

The Philadelphia Phillies’ Aaron Nola, on behalf of Team Italy, led all WBC pitchers in innings with nine. He’ll make his 2026 MLB debut Saturday against the Rangers, so we can’t make any snap judgments on him — yet.

Logan Webb, who tossed 8 2/3 innings for Team USA, ranked second in innings for the entire WBC. In his Opening Day start on Wednesday against the New York Yankees, Webb got scuffed up for nine hits and seven runs (six earned) over five innings. He only had three outings like that in his 34 starts last year, so it’s not like he has never does before. But it’s rare.

Skenes went 8 1/3 innings over two outings for Team USA. He didn’t even make it out of the first inning Thursday against the Mets. Yes, Oneil Cruz’s multiple incidents of malpractice in center field did not help matters, but Skenes didn’t exhibit much command. He walked two of the nine Mets he faced and hit a third.

On the flip side, the Detroit Tigers’ Tarik Skubal looked as brilliant as always in his Opening Day start on Thursday. Skubal, who went three innings in his lone WBC outing, breezed through six innings against the San Diego and scattered three hits with six whiffs.

Again, this is all Small Sample Size Theater.

For a larger sample size, let’s take a look at Team USA’s 2023 staff and see how things turned out for them.

Lance Lynn paced Team USA in 2023 with nine innings. He went on to deliver a 5.73 ERA during the 2023 regular season, which was far worse than his 3.99 ERA the year before.

Adam Wainwright produced a 3.71 ERA for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022. After tossing eight innings for Team USA in the 2023 WBC, he posted an absurd 7.40 ERA in what turned out to be his final season.

Colorado’s Kyle Freeland? He notched a 4.53 ERA in 2022, but that jumped to 5.03 in 2023 after handling six innings for Team USA. St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas? He went from a 3.29 ERA in 2022 to a 4.78 in 2023 with a six-inning WBC interlude.

Again, there’s no comparison in quality between the Lynn/Wainwright/Freeland/Mikolas quartet and Skubal/Skenes/Webb.

At the same time, might there be a cost for asking a lot of your arm three weeks earlier than normal? It’s worth keeping a skeptical eye on Skenes, Webb and Co. as the 2026 season unfolds.