Why the Nebraska Cornhuskers Have the Edge Against Iowa in Sweet 16

The Nebraska Cornhuskers are coming off an upset over Vanderbilt, winning at the buzzer. The Iowa Hawkeyes are coming off a bigger upset over Florida, also beating them at the buzzer. We have two teams coming off two of the most incredible wins of the Round of 32.

Both of these teams have sound offenses and defenses. They don’t allow offensive rebounds, and neither team relies on them to find success. Both teams also force turnovers, but they don’t turn the ball over themselves.

The major difference between these teams is that Nebraska doesn’t foul, while Iowa fouls at one of the higher rates in the NCAA. The key for Iowa is that Nebraska doesn’t draw fouls at a high rate, but it’s something that could have a major impact on this game.

Ultimately, this game is going to come down to the way each team forces their opponents to score.

The Cornhuskers run a very specific type of defense. They don’t give up points at the rim, and they don’t foul. They’re giving up 39.7% of their points from the deep ball, which is the fifth-most in the country this season. If they give up shots from inside the arc, they’re generally away from the rim.

This is as difficult of a matchup as Iowa could get. They rely heavily on shots at the rim, which aren’t going to be available here. The Hawkeyes are also a great free-throw shooting team, but they won’t find many opportunities here. Instead, they’re going to need to focus on the deep ball, and they’re only shooting 35.1% from deep on the season, which ranks 106th in the country.

Iowa has a few options who can hit shots from deep, but they only have two players who have proven to be able to do it on volume.

On the other side, Iowa has struggled defensively this season. They’re willing to foul, and they give up points at the rim. The Hawkeyes are at their best defending the arc.

Nebraska wants to score with the deep ball, but they’re more efficient elsewhere. They can get to the rim when they’re attacking, and they’re shooting 58.1% from inside the arc. They can also score efficiently at the line.

Ultimately, this is going to come down to which team can score in the way their opponent lets them. I prefer Nebraska’s ability to get to the basket over Iowa’s ability to consistently hit the deep ball.

Where to Bet: Nebraska moneyline | -128 at FanDuel Sportsbook

2025-26 CBB Season Betting Record: 6-9