Fantasy Football 2025: The Best Draft Mistakes to Exploit From ESPN’s Experts

As part of the celebration of its 30th anniversary of fantasy football this week, ESPN assembled 10 of its best to conduct a draft from which much can be learned.

Surely, substituting the order of these picks for your own draft list would significantly increase your chances of a high finish in your league this season.

The biggest reason you might not win your fantasy championship using this strategy would be if your competition had the same brilliant idea, relegating yourself to a headache-filled night of having the top guy on your list porch-pirated at your doorstep time after time.

Fortunately, I have a solution we can keep between us. Even the best make mistakes, and the ESPN draft was riddled with head-scratchers. Some pickers were too conservative. Some too bold. And some, well, might be good at analyzing outdoor football but are clearly dizzied by the bright lights of the fantasy game.

I’ve compiled a long list of mistakes, some bigger than others. For the sake of this discussion, I’ve trimmed it down to five guys who were taken at least 10 picks too early, and another five who slipped at least 10 slots too far.

Make the appropriate changes and you, too, could make fantasy celebration a reality this year.

TOO EARLY: RB Ashton Jeanty, Raiders (drafted 5th)

The Boise State standout was a great pick for the Raiders, who can slide him right into the Pete Carroll offense that helped make Marshawn Lynch a star in Seattle. The difference is Carroll’s Seahawks had a great defense, allowing for a conservative attack. The Raiders have no such thing, two quality receiving options and a quarterback who will steal some rushing yards. Those who take Jeanty in the first or second round will soon realize: You don’t run the ball when you’re trailing by two touchdowns in the second half.

TOO LATE: RB Kyren Williams, Rams (drafted 28th)

I count eight elite backs on my draft list, which makes going RB-RB with your first two picks a great way to line up your league’s top backfield while hurting the competition at the same time. Williams is a do-it-all back on a strong team with a dependable offense, yet he went 23 picks after a rookie on a bad team led by another journeyman quarterback. Don’t let Williams slide past Round 2. If he’s your second-best back, you’re set up for big things this season.

TOO EARLY: TE Brock Bowers, Raiders (drafted 11th)

This has less to do with Bowers and more to do with the current state of the NFL. It wasn’t long ago that Travis Kelce was picked this high because there was a big drop-off to the No. 2 tight end. But now we’ve got Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, George Kittle — and at least two new stars-in-the-making every year. Why rush to take a tight end in Round 2 when you can get a similar talent six rounds later?

TOO LATE: TE Tyler Warren, Colts (drafted 111th)

Not much can be gleaned from the first preseason game, but the Colts seemed to let a thoroughbred out of the bag when they came out in no-huddle mode. If that’s their plan of attack this season, with the awful quality of their defense, they could be a weekly shootout waiting to happen. It’s already clear the leader of that fantasy-friendly attack will be Warren, who looks like another Bowers import into the NFL. The ESPN crew went 11 full rounds without drafting him. Don’t wait past Round 8 if you want the ultimate sleeper.

TOO EARLY: QB Josh Allen, Bills (drafted 21st)

When ESPN first adopted fantasy football, quarterbacks got six points per touchdown pass. It made them the most valuable players in the game — you know, just like the real thing. Their point totals have been watered down over the years, but it seems these so-called experts haven’t adapted to the scoring change. The pack is tighter than ever, so the thinking is similar to tight end: Why be the first to take a quarterback when you can win even if you’re the last to grab one? You’ll be better off taking a star running back or wide receiver in Round 3.

TOO LATE: QB Jared Goff, Lions (drafted 138th)

If you’re going to try the wait-on-a-quarterback strategy, you’ve got to know who’s likely to be available and when. In the ESPN draft, nine of the 10 participants took quarterbacks in the first nine rounds, leaving the likes of Brock Purdy, Justin Fields, Dak Prescott, Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love — and Goff, who slid this far last year, too, and wound up as fantasy’s No. 6 point-scorer. He could be even better this year when the Lions unleash Jameson Williams. In Round 10 (four rounds before he went in the ESPN draft), Goff’s an absolute steal.

TOO EARLY: RB Omarion Hampton, Chargers (drafted 30th)

Like the Raiders, the selection of Hampton was a wise one for a Jim Harbaugh-directed offense. But so was the addition of Keenan Allen, and the two moves should work against each other from a fantasy perspective. If you’re only going to score two touchdowns a game, and you have Justin Herbert, Allen and Ladd McConkey, what are the chances that your rookie running back is going to get one of them? Denver rookie RJ Harvey went 23 picks later and should benefit from a much higher-scoring team with fewer options. Round 5 also has several established backs (including Breece Hall, Alvin Kamara, James Conner, Chuba Hubbard, D’Andre Swift, Brian Robinson and Tony Pollard) in much better situations than Hampton.

TOO LATE: WR DJ Moore, Bears (drafted 50th)

Here’s another reason to consider the RB-RB approach atop your draft: You can get three very attractive wide receivers with your next three picks (one to play at Flex) and walk away with the best RB tandem in your league AND the best depth at WR. Moore could easily be a Top 10 wideout this season as he assumes the role in which new coach Ben Johnson made Amon-Ra St. Brown a star in recent years. He’s universally available in Round 4, which means you can draft another WR in Round 3 (dependable A.J. Brown, undervalued Terry McLaurin, rebounding Tyreek Hill and breakout threat Garrett Wilson were all available in the ESPN draft) and pair him with Moore for a dynamic pass-catching duo.

TOO EARLY: WR Davante Adams, Rams (drafted 38th)

Adams has done little in recent years to demonstrate he’s operating on anything but reputation and fumes. He’s no better than the Rams’ No. 3 option behind two high-volume guys — Williams and Puka Nacua — sliding into a role that made a similar former fantasy star, Cooper Kupp, look like a has-been last season. In the fourth round, I want more than five catches for 38 yards and an occasional TD. Give me the aforementioned Moore seven days, and especially on Sunday.

TOO LATE: WR Rashee Rice, Chiefs (drafted 57th)

Holdouts, injuries, possible suspensions … you can win fantasy championships using the fears of your competition against them on draft day. You’re making a big mistake if you, like most participants, allow McLaurin to slide because he might sit out the season. Nobody sits out a season. Tyreek Hill because he was slowed by injuries last year? He looks fine. And Rice because he might be suspended? They said that last year, too, causing him to slip in drafts before he became one of the most productive wideouts in the league until he got hurt. With Kelce no longer that guy, Patrick Mahomes has found his new Tyreek Hill. And you get him in Round 5? Even if he misses a few games, your patience will be rewarded in the fantasy playoffs.