Grading the 2025-26 NBA Finals Preseason Favorites at the New Year

As we turn the page to start a new year, it’s fun to look back at the preseason odds for the NBA. 

What teams are meeting expectations, who is rising above, and who has faltered as the season closes in on its halfway point. 

Here are the grades for the five teams with the best odds to win the finals at the start of the 2025-26 NBA season.

#1 Oklahoma City Thunder +240: A+

The Thunder were the most dominant team in the league last season, and they’re even better this year. OKC is 30-2 against every team that’s not in San Antonio, and has looked unbeatable at specific points this season. They have an uncanny ability to smother teams. If you fall behind them, they bury you. It’s very reminiscent of the 2018 Warriors.

Since returning from injury, Jalen Williams has struggled to fit into the Thunder's rotations, so once he gets going, they might be unbeatable. The biggest key to the Thunder's success this season is that their depth pieces have gotten so much stronger. Chet Holmgren is the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year, Ajay Mitchell went from an end-of-bench piece to a potential Sixth Man of the Year, and Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins have become perfect role players to an elite bench unit.

Oh yeah, and they have last season's MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who might go back-to-back. The Thunder are currently +105 to win the Finals, and that still feels like a smart bet.

#2 Denver Nuggets +550: B-

Before Nikola Jokic and half the Nuggets roster got injured, I would have given them an A. Jokic was back to being the no-doubt best player alive, Jamal Murray is currently having a career year, and the rest of the role players have fit in better than in years past. Then the injury bug decimated Denver, and they’re going to have to battle to stay afloat until they can recover.

If the Nuggets can survive without Jokic, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Jonas Valanciunas for the next month or so, they can contend with the Thunder for the West.

Lastly, I am wildly surprised that the Nuggets seem to have lost the Michael Porter Jr. trade. Maybe removing Porter Jr.’s personality was an addition by subtraction. Still, he’s having a career year in Brooklyn, averaging just under 26 points a night, while playing a valuable role in one of the better defenses in the East. As long as Jokic is on this team, they’re always going to be contenders, especially with Jamal Murray providing a career year.

#3 Cleveland Cavaliers +750: C-

I wouldn’t blame you if you were even lower on the Cavs than I am; however, they started the year with the injury bug instead of finding it mid-season like the Nuggets. It looked bleak in Cleveland for a bit, but I believe they’re starting to play like a team that was the favorites in the East to start the year.

They’re still not even back to 100%, as they’re waiting for Max Strus to make his debut, and one of DeAndre Hunter, Sam Merrill, or Dean Wade manages to find themselves on the injury report each night. When they’ve had all their role players, they’ve looked like an entirely different team. Weirdly enough, this team is at its best with Merrill in the lineup. He’s seemingly been the catalyst for the best version of this team.

You can’t talk about the Cavs without mentioning Donovan Mitchell playing at a first-team All-NBA level. He’s been at his best all year, but he needs more from Darius Garland and Evan Mobley. If he can get All-Star play out of them, the Cavs can still win the East. I might be a touch too high on the Cavs, but don’t be surprised when they finish this season as a top-three seed in the East.

#4 New York Knicks +900: B+

Who would’ve thought that the missing piece for the Knicks was Mike Brown? His ability to trust his bench has made life far easier for the Knicks' starters. Jalen Brunson can have more off nights when you can trust guys like Jordan Clarkson or Tyler Kolek to give you great spurts off the bench.

Where I do have some concerns is the rest of the starting lineup. Mikal Bridges, OG Annunoby, and Karl Anthony-Towns haven’t had their best seasons in the Big Apple. They’ve been more inefficient and struggled with consistency throughout the year. Fortunately, in the most significant moments, like on Christmas Day or the NBA Cup Finals, they’ve risen to the moment.

The Knicks and Cavs are still my two favorites in the East, but I don’t love either of them to compete with the top of the West. They’re both flawed rosters that rely on their small guards to will them to victory. It’s been a solid year at MSG, but I’m not sure this team will ever be strong enough to get out of the East.

#5 Minnesota Timberwolves +1300 C+

Anthony Edwards is absolutely a superstar. Rudy Gobert has revitalized his career and is back to being a defensive stopper. Then there’s the rest of the roster.

The one-two combo of Julius Randle and Naz Reid has been one of the worst defensive pairings in the entire league. They both put up solid counting stats, but they do so at wildly inefficient rates. The issues Minnesota had last season are just as problematic this season, if not even worse. They desperately need to add a point guard at the trade deadline. This team cannot rely on Mike Conley to run their offense.

Ant is scoring nearly 30 a night on his most efficient splits of his career. It’s a shame that Minnesota isn’t doing more to build a team around him that better suits his strengths. He’s good enough to win games on his own, and they might be able to steal a game from the Thunder in the regular season, but they need to be buyers at the deadline. The West is way too deep this year to run this very flawed lineup in the playoffs.