Despite starting the campaign as at least co-favorites, Chelsea’s odds of winning are low because they now have only opportunity to potentially erase City’s lead by a guaranteed three points, whereas Arsenal could theoretically beat the Citizens twice. In a lot of ways, it’s not when you drop points that matters, it’s who you drop them against; by losing to City already and failing to win gimme games against Swansea and Crystal Palace, it would take a monumental comeback for them to retain their title. And it’s hard to imagine any of the other challengers sorting themselves out in time to run down the favorites at this point. As shocking as it sounds, City very well may have already done enough to separate themselves from the pack for good.

The best part of soccer’s table format is its efficiency at crowning the best team over the course of a season. While the club that puts together the most impressive performances throughout the season typically winds up champion by the end, they don’t usually explode to such large leads this soon after the start. Barring multiple debilitating injuries or a couple of highly unlikely transfer coups, it’s a pretty good bet that the other title hopefuls will find themselves chasing after City for the duration, jostling amongst each other for a spot on the podium more so than really challenging for first.