How Prediction Markets Are Changing the Future of Poker

Poker and prediction markets have always shared a certain DNA. Both thrive on information, psychology, and the ability to price uncertainty better than the next person.

Those two worlds are now crossing paths in a way that could change how fans (and maybe even players) engage with the game.

Daniel Negreanu’s partnership with Kalshi, and Polymarket’s recently announced collaboration with Hustler Casino Live, each take a big step in the convergence of professional poker and regulated event markets.

For poker’s global audience, it’s an enticing idea. For regulators and insiders, though, it could be a little unnerving.

Betting on the Game, Inside the Game

At first glance, it’s very smart. Kalshi, the federally regulated exchange backed by the CFTC, is exploring poker-themed contracts, such as whether a poker tournament meets its guarantee or whether a woman makes the WSOP Main Event final table. Those are quantifiable, objective outcomes.

Polymarket’s play is flashier: live betting on Hustler Casino Live (HCL) cash games, where viewers can wager on who wins the biggest pots in real time. It’s slick, it’s modern, and it’s exactly the kind of interactive layer that poker streams have needed for years.

But here’s where things get tricky: HCL games are not tournaments with fixed outcomes. They’re cash games, with real people making real financial decisions at the table, and those same people could, in theory, bet on themselves through Polymarket.

Last year, Polymarket listed a one-off market for high-stakes pro Alan Keating on whether Keating would “finish up” in the Million Dollar Cash Game at HCL. But here’s a twist: Keating, a regular in the cash game streaming scene, said publicly that he has an investment in Polymarket, thus adding another dimension to the questionable optics of all of this.

That’s not to suggest that Keating would ever be a bad actor, but it is another piece to the integrity puzzle that nobody has solved yet.

When Information Becomes a Currency

Poker has always lived on the edge of information asymmetry. Knowing what others don’t know is part of the game. But when that advantage spills over into trading markets, it blurs lines that regulators usually treat as sacred.

If a player on stream can short themselves, hedge against a loss, or coordinate off-table bets through proxies, it becomes almost impossible to separate legitimate speculation from subtle manipulation. It doesn’t even need to be nefarious; a player folding a marginal spot to secure a Polymarket payout could distort both the poker game and the market tied to it.

Gaming regulators sidestep this by banning betting on events where participants control the outcome, like the Oscars or professional wrestling. Prediction markets, especially decentralized ones, lack such built-in guardrails.

Polymarket’s founder, Shayne Coplan, has long defended insider participation as a feature, not a flaw, arguing that it makes markets more efficient by integrating real knowledge into prices. That might hold for macroeconomic indicators or political primaries. But in poker, where a single river card changes everything, that logic feels more combustible.

The Promotional Upside

Still, you can’t deny the promotional brilliance of all this. Poker has struggled for years to recapture the mainstream energy of its boom years. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket bring fresh eyes and fresh liquidity back into the fold.

For content producers, it’s rocket fuel. Every market is a built-in storyline. Every price swing becomes a conversation. Even traditional sponsors see new engagement metrics.

Balancing Innovation with Integrity

So where does that leave us? Somewhere between revolution and restraint.

Prediction markets could inject new life into poker broadcasts, sponsorships, and player branding. They could also introduce the same integrity headaches that poker spent decades cleaning up.

The key, then, will be a clear separation between participants and traders, objective event design, and perhaps a player code that mirrors insider trading rules in finance.

Because for prediction markets to elevate poker, they need to enhance the sweat, not compromise it.