How Sweet it is

The third No. 15 seed in Tournament history to make the Sweet 16 shocked most of America by not only taking down one of the title favorites in Kentucky in overtime, but doubling down by besting mid-major darling Murray State to make it to the second weekend of the Tournament. The Peacocks are no fluke, withstanding Oscar Tshiebwe’s best to not be a usual one-and-done and stopping the Racers 21-game win streak.

SPU will have its share of distractions heading into Friday’s matchup against Purdue, with head coach Shaheen Holloway in the mix for the vacant Seton Hall head coaching job after Kevin Willard departed the fellow New Jersey school for the same position at Maryland. After a few days to adjust to what the Peacocks showed over the last week, Boilermakers’ head coach Matt Painter will have a solid defensive strategy and likely smash Saint Peter’s glass slipper short of the Elite Eight.

Jim Larranaga is back in the Sweet 16 for the third time since he led George Mason to the Final Four 16 years ago. And he’s back in the second weekend of the Tournament with one of the oldest teams in college basketball. After narrowly defeating USC on Friday, the Hurricanes led wire to wire, blazing past a strong Auburn team.

The Tigers’ deflation on offense made them prone to an experienced team, with an even battle ahead against Iowa State, which also pulled off two upsets to reach the Sweet 16. Miami went 5-0 in the regular season against the four ACC schools from North Carolina, two of which are still in the Tournament. But The U isn’t built to win two more games in March.

The Wolverines hadn’t won back-to-back games since early February before this past week, with many clamoring that Texas A&M should’ve been in the Tournament field instead. Michigan trailed by 15 in the first half against No. 6 seed Colorado State. Whatever Juwan Howard said at halftime worked, as his team completed a 27-point swing, taking down the Rams by a dozen.

In the second round, the Wolverines outlasted the Southeastern Conference Tournament winners Tennessee to make their fourth straight Sweet 16. Howard hasn’t led his team to victory three times in a row since a January trifecta against Maryland, Northwestern and Indiana. With an opponent like Villanova up next, Michigan doesn’t have a great shot to continue its unexpected surge.

The team with the easiest road to the Sweet 16 still in the field is the Razorbacks. They’re the only SEC team left in the field. As deep as the SEC was this season, a major red flag appeared throughout the conference’s top teams. They were all nearly unbeatable at home, but looked susceptible away from friendly confines. Arkansas beat then-No. 1 Auburn in Fayetteville, but just skated by away from Bud Walton Arena.

Arkansas escaped Vermont and New Mexico State and now faces No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga in the Sweet 16. While at times the Razorbacks look strong, inconsistencies across Eric Musselman’s tenure makes a run as the lowest seed left in the West Region appear unlikely. The SEC will be lucky to get a team to the Elite Eight.

The Friars looked fantastic in the Round of 32 but nearly didn’t make it there after narrowly beating South Dakota State on Thursday. Up next is a matchup with Kansas, which is basically the Jackrabbits on steroids. A matchup nightmare for Ed Cooley’s squad is coming Friday night. Take away Providence’s 27-5 and you have a team that’s skilled in every way, designed for wins in March.

Every team left also holds those traits. So what makes the Friars stand out when under a microscopic look? I’m not sure and that’s a problem. Providence does have five players scoring 9.9 points per game or higher. But evidenced by an Iowa team the Friars didn’t run into, it takes more than offense to win in the Tournament, especially in the deeper rounds.

For a team that went 10-12 over its last 22 games, the Cyclones have made an impressive dent in March, especially considering their standing 12 months ago. Iowa State won two games last year and none after the calendar flipped to 2021. The Cyclones recovered fast to beat LSU and Wisconsin and are now one win away from the Elite Eight, with fellow double-digit seed Miami in their way.

Iowa State started the season 12-0 and were thought to be one of the elite teams in the nation before a rough 7-11 mark in Big 12 play. Now the early-season favorites have made it to the second weekend of the Tournament with a good path to be on the doorstep of the Final Four. This rebuilt roster under first-year head coach T.J. Otzelberger has won more than its fair share and might not be done.

Mike Krzyzewski’s last run has four games maximum left. After dismantling Cal State Fullerton in the Round of 64, a late Blue Devils’ comeback against Michigan State extended Krzyzewski’s on-court employment for at least five days. After taking down legendary coach Tom Izzo in the Round of 32, a first-year head coach awaits Duke in the Sweet 16 in Texas Tech’s Mark Adams.

Duke has been a heavy hitter all season and its inconsistencies at the end of the regular season makes it hard to choose the Blue Devils to make a deep run with Tech and likely Gonzaga on its way to New Orleans. Krzyzewski’s coaching career likely ends in San Francisco as the storybook ending those in Durham want doesn’t happen.

Hubert Davis’ run to the Sweet 16 in his first season at the helm of the Tar Heels has been something special. UNC’s victory over Duke in Coach K’s final home game gives it the slight edge over its heated rivals. The only team in the Tournament to take down a No. 1 seed, with Sunday’s overtime victory against Baylor, showed the possible strength of North Carolina.

The Tar Heels’ peaks are evident because of the peaks that concurrently exist. They’re nearly not on this countdown after Brady Manek’s ejection led to a 38-13 Baylor run to force overtime. That kind of collapse was possible against only a few Tournament teams and most of them are still in the field. A run to the Elite Eight or even New Orleans appears within reach for UNC, but a title seems like a farfetched thought.

After last season’s run to the Final Four, the Bruins appear to have many of those same qualities and are a better-known commodity. After a tough Round of 64 matchup against Akron, UCLA put in a dominant performance against St. Mary’s. Right in front of the Bruins is a battle for a spot in the Elite Eight against fellow blueblood North Carolina.

With last year’s breakout star Johnny Juzang having a more complete team around him for this run, the Bruins could easily make another run to the Final Four and possibly set up a rematch with last year’s runners-up Gonzaga. Two tough games separate Mick Cronin’s crew from that dream.

Possibly the most underrated team in the country heading into the Tournament was the Cougars. Coming off a Final Four and with a meticulous coach like Kelvin Sampson, it’s hard to understand why the future Big 12 contender didn’t have more eyes on them coming out of their dominant American Athletic Conference season.

Houston, you have a problem (had to make the pun) in a Sweet 16 matchup against Arizona. The Wildcats are one of the Tournament favorites. Despite Arizona nearly getting knocked out by TCU over the weekend, Bennedict Mathurin and crew have national-championship potential when clicking. The Cougars could be the kryptonite that knocks out another Goliath.

Taking over for Chris Beard in Lubbock while the former Red Raiders’ head coach stayed in the conference was no easy task. Now, Mark Adams has advanced Tech further in the Tournament than the Beard-led Longhorns, who fell to Purdue in the Round of 32. Adams could end Coach K’s career on Thursday with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.

It seems like much longer than three years ago that the Red Raiders appeared in the national championship game, losing to Virginia. There are only a few Tech players on the roster from the 2018-19 squad, but they know how to win in March, which vaults the Red Raiders up the list.

In a Tournament full of legendary coaches, Jay Wright will lead the Wildcats to their eighth Sweet 16 during his 21-year tenure in Philadelphia. Nova doesn’t get the honor of playing the Sweet 16 and possibly Elite Eight from the home of the 76ers and Flyers but instead will try to make the Final Four from San Antonio after defeating Delaware and Ohio State thus far in the Tournament.

Villanova somehow feels under the radar heading into the second weekend. Maybe it was due to being a popular upset pick that didn’t come to fruition or sharing a region with a dominant favorite like Arizona. Either way, facing an upstart Michigan team next as the favorites gives the Wildcats a decent shot at making it to college basketball’s final weekend.

The highest seed remaining in the South Region still has an ideal path to New Orleans despite its near-tournament exit on Sunday against TCU. Clutch shooting down the stretch and a gusty overtime performance kept the Wildcats from supreme disappointment. A deceivingly tough test is up next against Kelvin Sampson’s Houston, but Arizona has fought off great teams all year.

The almost-knockout is why the Wildcats aren’t higher on this list, although a re-seed of No. 4 overall is nothing to scoff at. Arizona is a complete team with no huge red flags, as every No. 1 seed left in the field was tested during the Round of 32. The Wildcats got the lowest passing score of the three.

With the top two seeds in the East Region falling during the first week of the Tournament, the Boilermakers shoot up the rankings. They also have a prime spot on this countdown because their Sweet 16 matchup is with Saint Peter’s. Purdue head coach Matt Painter has built his reputation from the sidelines in his adjustments. Nothing the Peacocks can show coming up will faze his team, cut from the same cloth as the great Gene Keady-coached Purdue squads.

Early on this season, the Boilermakers were the No. 1 team in the country and have regained that form after running the gauntlet of the Big Ten. Also standing in Purdue’s way of making it to New Orleans would be a blueblood of either UCLA or North Carolina, should the likely win over SPU occur.

Among No. 1 seeds during the first week of the NCAA Tournament, the Jayhawks bent the least, while still being tested on Sunday by Creighton. Kansas has one of the deepest rosters in the country with its core rotation all capable of starting at most schools. Led by Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun, KU has elite scoring with plenty of others capable of setting up on any given night.

Providence provides a solid matchup in the Sweet 16 on Friday but Kansas should overpower the Friars before a guaranteed Elite Eight matchup for the winner against a double-digit seed. The Jayhawks did win both previous matchups against Iowa State this season in Big 12 play but it’s safe to assume they’d rather see Miami with a trip to the Final Four on the line because of the adage of how tough it is to beat a team three times in one season.

The No. 1 overall seed stays in the top spot after the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament despite turbulence against both Georgia State and Memphis. Simply put, the Bulldogs still check the most boxes on paper of a national champion with an incredible starting five, great help from the bench, a legendary coach and a proven record of learning from mistakes.

Gonzaga has been in this scenario plenty of times under Mark Few, where a dominant team looks like the one to break through and win the program’s first national championship. If last year wasn’t the team of destiny, this season’s squad could be it. The Bulldogs face Arkansas in the Sweet 16, which isn’t a guaranteed win, but is a great matchup. Either Duke or Texas Tech would await in the Elite Eight.