Joe Burrow’s 2025 Return Will Determine Cincinnati Bengals’ Playoff Fate

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are coming to a crossroads in the 2025 season.

Burrow has been on injured reserve since Sept. 16 after injuring the left big toe in the second quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Monday started a 21-day period during which he may begin limited practice with the team without counting against the 53-player active roster. He is eligible to be activated to the roster during the 21-day period.

And that schedule has advanced much more rapidly than even the experts imagined. When he went down in the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sept. 14 at Paycor, the thinking was he would have surgery for the grade 3 sprain of his left toe and would be out until at least mid-December. Burrow is 2-3 weeks ahead of that timeline right now.

"It's an ongoing process,” Burrow said. "We're figuring out what works for me, and I have to have a lot of hardware in there to protect it … I was back to moving pretty quickly and able to get back into my strength and conditioning level pretty quick. My body is in a good spot. So, there's been a lot that has gone into that."

The list of Burrow injuries is well-chronicled. The left ACL and MCL in Nov. 2020. The right knee late in Dec. 2021 and in Super Bowl LVI. The appendix in July 2022. The calf injury in July 2023. The right wrist in Nov. 2023. And now the left big toe in Sept. 2025.

The Bengals managed to beat the Steelers on Oct. 16 and there was hope that the Bengals, at 3-4, had righted the ship and were beginning to figure out things. They had the winless New York Jets and Chicago Bears up next at home on a three-game homestand. They had leads against both until the defense disintegrated and the Bengals collapsed in the closing minute of both games.

They scored 80 points over the two games and managed to lose both. They are now 3-6, with games against teams they're chasing in the division their only realistic shot at the playoffs.

"Our division is wide open. Pittsburgh's 5-4 at this point. We play them this week," Burrow said. "Everything is still there in front of us. Very rare that our division looks like this, but it does this year and, so, I think we'll be at least in it until the end."

As for his return, Burrow has never taken the timeline of experts as his own. Burrow, who nearly rode his best statistical season to an MVP honor in 2024, wants to play.

He pushed his rehab hard and now, returning to practice on Monday and opening his 21-day window to return, means he could be back against Baltimore on Thanksgiving night, which he acknowledged would be a “very” significant moment for him personally.

But there's a catch. The Bengals have to be relevant for the team to want to subject their franchise quarterback to more wear and tear. That means the Bengals need to find a way to win one if not both of their next two games, against the Steelers on the road and home against the upstart Patriots, who currently hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

If the Bengals can find a way to win both, they would stand 5-6 in the topsy-turvy AFC North and have a chance heading into a Thanksgiving night showdown in Baltimore against the Ravens. Make no mistake, a Burrow return, despite how good Joe Flacco has looked in running the offense, would be an emotional boost for everyone in the Bengals organization.

"I think so. He's one of the best players in the world, so anytime that player comes back and players have seen how hard he's been working behind the scenes with the trainers and strength coaches," Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said.

The opportunities are still there for the 3-6 Bengals to make a run in the second half. Last year, the Bengals were presumed dead at 4-8 and won their last five games before being eliminated on the final day by a Denver win over Kansas City. This season, the Bengals play Baltimore twice and Buffalo once in a 17-day span before finishing with a road game at Miami and home games against Arizona and Cleveland.

But if the Bengals defense continues to fail, there'd be no reason for the organization to risk Burrow.