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Illustration for article titled Kyle Orton Was The Most Pivotal Quarterback In Week 7

According to data from Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics, Kyle Orton had three of the NFL's top five most positive plays of the week on the Bills' game-winning drive.


Orton's fourth-down completion to Scott Chandler raised the Bills' Win Probability 28 percentage points from 4 percent to 32 percent. Orton's completion to Sammy Watkins four plays later raised Win Probability 27 percentage points from 19 percent to 46 percent. His completion to Chris Hogan two plays after the Watkins completion raised the Bills' Win Probability 59 percentage points from 24 percent to 83 percent. This led to the game-winning touchdown pass to Watkins two plays later. Significant increases in Win Probability happen when a quarterback makes big completions like this near the end of a tight game.

Burke's Win Probability measures a variety of things, like time remaining, score, down, and distance. And while the Bills came out on top in their last-minute comeback attempt, the Jets didn't fare as well.


Down two points with five seconds remaining, the Jets had a chance to win the game with a 58-yard field goal attempt. But Nick Folk's kick was blocked in what was the costliest play of the week. The play lowered the Jets' Win Probability 27 percentage points from 27 percent to 0 percent (which means the game ended in a Jets loss by the play's conclusion).

Below are the most and least helpful plays of the week.

Play Team WPA EPA Qtr Time Down Distance Yd Line
Kyle Orton pass to Chris Hogan for 28 yards BUF 0.59 3.49 4 0:25 2 20 30
(Punt formation) Johnny Hekker pass to Benny Cunningham 18 yards SL 0.42 2.39 4 2:55 4 3 82
Kyle Orton pass to Scott Chandler for 24 yards BUF 0.28 3.39 4 1:27 4 20 60
Kyle Orton pass to Sammy Watkins for 18 yards BUF 0.27 2.70 4 0:51 3 12 38
Colt McCoy pass to Pierre Garcon for 70 yard touchdown WAS 0.26 5.86 3 12:40 2 9 70
Play Team WPA EPA Qtr Time Down Distance Yd Line
Nick Folk 58 yard field goal is blocked NYJ -0.27 -2.40 4 0:05 3 5 40
Kyle Orton incomplete pass intended for Scott Chandler BUF -0.22 -1.76 4 0:41 1 10 20
Austin Davis incomplete pass intended for Tavon Austin SL -0.2 -0.80 4 2:59 3 3 82
Matthew Stafford incomplete pass intended for Corey Fuller DET -0.2 -1.77 4 2:26 3 5 9
Blake Bortles pass intercepted by CLE-Tashaun Gipson at JAX 48, returned for 31 yards to JAX 17 JAX -0.2 -5.64 1 8:09 1 10 61

[Advanced Football Analytics]

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