Mike Nugent's Missed Field Goal Was The Costliest Play Of Week 6

Ross Benes|published: Mon 13th October, 11:58 2014

On the last play of a tied overtime game Mike Nugent missed a chip-shot field goal, which would have won the game for the Bengals. The miss led to the first tie in the NFL this season and was the most detrimental play of the week. According to data from Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics, the missed field goal lowered Cincinnati's Win Probability 45 percentage points from 95 percent to 50 percent, which means the game resulted in a tie.

Burke's Win Probability measures a variety of things, like time remaining, score, down, and distance. While Nugent had the most damaging play of the week, Aaron Rodgers had two of the most positive plays Sunday.

His fourth down pass to Jordy Nelson to keep the game-winning drive alive raised the Packers' Win Probability 27 percentage points from 14 percent to 41 percent. Rodgers's fake-spike and 12 yard pass to Davante Adams on that same drive raised his team's Win Probability 25 percentage points from 57 percent to 82 percent, which led to Rodgers's game-winning touchdown throw the next play. Boosts in Win Probability like this happen when a team is driving to take the lead with less than a minute remaining.

Below are the most and least helpful plays of the week.

Play	Team	WPA	EPA	Qtr	Time	Down	Distance	Yd Line
Aaron Rodgers pass to Jordy Nelson for 18 yards	GB	0.27	3.61	4	1:07	4	10	48
Andy Dalton pass to James Wright for 24 yards	CIN	0.27	3.14	OT	0:40	2	10	55
Cam Newton pass to Kelvin Benjamin for 13 yards	CAR	0.25	3.47	4	7:08	4	2	37
Aaron Rodgers pass to Davante Adams for 12 yards	GB	0.25	1.34	4	0:07	2	6	16
Adam Jones kickoff return for 97 yards	CIN	0.25	5.06	4	4:58	n/a	n/a	70

Play	Team	WPA	EPA	Qtr	Time	Down	Distance	Yd Line
Mike Nugent 36 yard field goal is no good	CIN	-0.45	-2.20	OT	0:02	2	12	18
Josh Scobee 55 yard field goal is blocked by TEN-Sammie Hill	JAX	-0.36	-4.00	4	0:12	3	2	37
Derek Carr pass intercepted by SD-Jason Verrett at SD 5, returned for no gain	OAK	-0.29	-2.08	4	1:20	2	1	45
Andy Dalton pass intercepted by CAR-Antoine Cason at CAR 10, returned for 80 yards	CIN	-0.24	-7.28	3	10:06	3	9	26
Cam Newton pass intercepted by CIN-Reggie Nelson at CIN 45, returned for 31 yards	CAR	-0.19	-3.40	4	3:36	3	13	71