On the last play of a tied overtime game Mike Nugent missed a chip-shot field goal, which would have won the game for the Bengals. The miss led to the first tie in the NFL this season and was the most detrimental play of the week. According to data from Brian Burke of Advanced Football Analytics, the missed field goal lowered Cincinnati's Win Probability 45 percentage points from 95 percent to 50 percent, which means the game resulted in a tie.
Burke's Win Probability measures a variety of things, like time remaining, score, down, and distance. While Nugent had the most damaging play of the week, Aaron Rodgers had two of the most positive plays Sunday.
His fourth down pass to Jordy Nelson to keep the game-winning drive alive raised the Packers' Win Probability 27 percentage points from 14 percent to 41 percent. Rodgers's fake-spike and 12 yard pass to Davante Adams on that same drive raised his team's Win Probability 25 percentage points from 57 percent to 82 percent, which led to Rodgers's game-winning touchdown throw the next play. Boosts in Win Probability like this happen when a team is driving to take the lead with less than a minute remaining.
Below are the most and least helpful plays of the week.
|Aaron Rodgers pass to Jordy Nelson for 18 yards||GB||0.27||3.61||4||1:07||4||10||48|
|Andy Dalton pass to James Wright for 24 yards||CIN||0.27||3.14||OT||0:40||2||10||55|
|Cam Newton pass to Kelvin Benjamin for 13 yards||CAR||0.25||3.47||4||7:08||4||2||37|
|Aaron Rodgers pass to Davante Adams for 12 yards||GB||0.25||1.34||4||0:07||2||6||16|
|Adam Jones kickoff return for 97 yards||CIN||0.25||5.06||4||4:58||n/a||n/a||70|
|Mike Nugent 36 yard field goal is no good||CIN||-0.45||-2.20||OT||0:02||2||12||18|
|Josh Scobee 55 yard field goal is blocked by TEN-Sammie Hill||JAX||-0.36||-4.00||4||0:12||3||2||37|
|Derek Carr pass intercepted by SD-Jason Verrett at SD 5, returned for no gain||OAK||-0.29||-2.08||4||1:20||2||1||45|
|Andy Dalton pass intercepted by CAR-Antoine Cason at CAR 10, returned for 80 yards||CIN||-0.24||-7.28||3||10:06||3||9||26|
|Cam Newton pass intercepted by CIN-Reggie Nelson at CIN 45, returned for 31 yards||CAR||-0.19||-3.40||4||3:36||3||13||71|