MLB Over/Under Best Bet: San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees

Well, Gavin Williams turned in his best start of the year and mostly dominated the Chicago White Sox on Thursday. He needed to deposit too many pitches, however, and that’s what cost him from getting the necessary 16 outs for yesterday’s prop bet — by a mere one.

Back into the world of over/unders where I belong, and we’ll uncharacteristically be eyeing tonight’s contest from Yankee Stadium. When you’re largely fishing for low-scoring outcomes, this isn’t a ballpark you’d normally make hay in.

But that will be the case in this series opener between the San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees. Going for the road team is Robbie Ray, who scored a winning under bet for us his last time out. Watching him shred the Seattle Mariners, there’s plenty of evidence to support he’s returning to previous Cy Young form.

And remember, it was only four years ago when Ray nabbed baseball’s biggest individual honor for pitchers. That season, he went 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while accumulating 248 strikeouts in 193 1/3 innings. In the process, opposing batters mustered only a .210 average off the notoriously tight-pants-wearing southpaw in his 32 starts.

Ray eventually needed Tommy John surgery, which took him out for all but one start of the 2023 campaign before returning late last season. The signs were there that the old Robbie Ray was resurfacing, as he collected 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings and held hitters below the Mendoza Line with a .189 batting average against.

Interestingly, Ray has only amassed six strikeouts through his first two outings — spanning 11 1/3 innings — but he’s crafted some real quality work based on the type of contact he’s inducing. For instance, only 6.3% of batted balls against Ray went for line drives, which is an insanely low percentage. To put that into perspective, that’s only a third of what it was when he won the Cy Young Award (18.9%).

Furthermore, the 12-year veteran is registering 34.4% on balls pulled by the opposition. That mark would be a career best if it remains there and illustrates the difficulty hitters are having trying to hang in the box with Ray on the mound.

The number of punchouts will come, and this evening’s assignment represents a fine opportunity to get that strikeout rate closer to normal. New York is collectively tied for the sixth most in baseball as a team, going down via the whiff once every 3.5 at-bats.

On the other hand, we have the mercurial Marcus Stroman getting the ball for the Yankees, and hopefully it’s a better performance than how his first two turns went — especially after his constant declaration that “I’m a starter” when camp first opened.

The 33-year-old hasn’t shown much on the field thus far to prove his point remains true, not even lasting five innings in either of his first two starts. Stroman, though, is better than that.

People forget that this is a pitcher who was an All-Star as recently as two years ago — his second career berth in the Midsummer Classic, by the way — and before a messy second half last season, he still looked a lot like the upper-rotation pitcher he’s typically been. Stroman was 7-4 with a 3.51 ERA going into his first All-Star break as a Yankee.

While the Duke product currently holds a ghastly 7.27 ERA entering his third outing, he definitely hasn’t been that bad. Stroman had to combat poor misfortune with runners on the basepaths, dealing with a fluky 47.2% rate of runners left on base — in other words, more than half of the players that reached base against the right-hander ultimately came home to score.

Stroman was OK in his season debut opposite the Milwaukee Brewers, but manager Aaron Boone gave him the hook at 81 pitches and didn’t allow him to qualify for the win. In the ensuing assignment versus the Pittsburgh Pirates, Stroman only suffered any damage in his final inning.

I believe in the Long Island, New York, native to bounce back here and contribute something more in line with his acceptable work. Cold temperatures in the mid-40s and moderate winds blowing in from center field could be of assistance, though rain might be a significant factor, too.

Pick: UNDER 8 (-110, Caesars)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 9-6-1, +2.23 units
Over/Unders: 8-4-1
Props: 1-1
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Gavin Williams Over 15.5 Outs (loss)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

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