MLB Playoff Game 3 Best Bets: Mariners vs Tigers, Blue Jays vs Yankees

Well, I went with the Yankees and Mariners chalk in their respective series and… I still like the Mariners’ chances, but the less said about the other, the better. How about we add a couple of props into the portfolio for today’s games?

Season Record: 18-19-2, -2.04 Units

Yankees at Blue Jays

Shane Bieber Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+122 | DraftKings)

Normally, I’d lean under on this type of prop in a playoff game — especially in this era of deep bullpens. Managers tend to have quick hooks, and for good reason: you just can’t afford to let a game get away from you while waiting for a starter to find his rhythm.

But will that be the case for the Jays today? They’re up 2-0 in the series and would obviously love to close it out while the Yankees are reeling. However, they don’t need to win today and might prefer not to burn out their bullpen.

Yes, they had a day off yesterday, but Toronto needed seven relievers to get through Sunday’s game. Louis Varland and Seranthony Domínguez — two of their highest-leverage arms — both pitched in both games. Because of that, I think the Jays will give Shane Bieber a bit of rope today.

His top-line numbers after returning from Tommy John surgery are solid: a 3.45 ERA and 1.02 WHIP across 40.1 innings over seven starts. While command is often shaky after such an injury, Bieber’s 4.4% walk rate is excellent — even slightly better than his 5.5% career norm.

However, his 23.3% strikeout rate lags behind his 27.8% career mark, and he’s become more of a pitch-to-contact guy. The contact metrics aren’t great — a 93.2 mph average exit velocity, 48.2% hard-hit rate, and 12.2% barrel rate. He’ll pitch in front of a defense that’s strong up the middle but weak at the corners.

That’s a dangerous setup against a Yankees lineup filled with power hitters. I’m not expecting Bieber to implode — he’s still Shane Bieber — but I also don’t see him completely silencing New York.

Pick: Shane Bieber Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (+122)

Mariners at Tigers

Jack Flaherty Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-131 | DraftKings)

If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again! I took the under on Flaherty’s outs prop (11.5) in his first playoff start, and he pitched well — but even then, Detroit only let him go 4.2 innings. He threw 74 pitches to 17 batters before exiting.

Now, his outs recorded prop has climbed to 14.5, and I don’t see him getting there. The Tigers emptied their bullpen Saturday, but barely used it behind Tarik Skubal on Sunday — only Kyle Finnegan and lefty specialist Brant Hurter appeared, with Hurter throwing just five pitches.

Detroit loves using its bullpen aggressively, and with Flaherty’s inconsistency, that makes sense. He posted a 27.6% strikeout rate this season, but his 4.64 ERA and 1.28 WHIP reflect how volatile he’s been.

The deeper you go into his outings, the worse it gets:

• First time through the order: 1.08 WHIP, 33.3% K%
• Second time: 1.37 WHIP, 24.5% K%
• Third time: 1.57 WHIP, 21.9% K%

Long story short, I just don’t see him facing more than 18 batters. Give me the under on his outs recorded total.

Pick: Jack Flaherty Under 14.5 Outs Recorded (-131)