MLB Wild Card Game 1 Predictions: Red Sox vs. Yankees, Dodgers vs. Reds

It still feels like summer here in New Jersey, and technically October has not started yet, but it is time for some Playoff Baseball! Or as we Met fans call it this year, golf season. But anyway, we have four games today, let’s try to find some winners.

Red Sox at Yankees

Yankees ML (-130 BetMGM)

We get a fantastic pitching matchup of ace lefties here as the Red Sox start Garrett Crochet (18-5, 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 31.3% K%, 5.7% BB%) vs. the Yankees and Max Fried (19-5, 2.86 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 23.6% K%, 6.4% BB%, 52.4% GB%).

Crochet thrives mostly by just missing bats as he’s in the 93rd percentile in K% and 78th in Whiff% at 29.4%. But he also mitigates the contact he does allow as he’s 85th percentile in EV allowed and 81st in GB%. Fried does not have the same level of overpowering strikeout stuff (virtually no one does), but he’s had a consistent ability throughout his career of keeping the contact relatively light and the ball on the ground. He has 92nd percentile EV allowed and 89th percentile GB%.

Further, both have pitched well against their opponent this year. In 4 starts vs. the Yankees, Crochet has a 3.29 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 36.79% K% and 3.77% BB%. Fried has a 1.99 ERA and 28.57% K% vs. the Red Sox, but has walked too many with a 9.09% BB% and 1.42 WHIP.

Crochet is the very modestly better pitcher, but he has a much tougher task having to face the Yankees lineup. Since the All-Star Break, New York has slashed .251/.338/.455 with a league-best 120 wRC+ vs. lefties. The Red Sox meanwhile are just .235/.299/.366 with an 81 wRC+ that is 5th worst in MLB over the split.

Plus the Sox will not have Roman Anthony, arguably their best hitter despite his having only played in 71 games. Their lineup is more solid than imposing, whereas the Yankees with Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger and a hot Giancarlo Stanton in the middle are tough on even the best of pitchers.

The ESPN announcers will probably bleat on about doing the “little things” to win in October. But here’s some breaking news: “Homers are Good.” And the Bombers hit a lot of them, a league-high 274 this season to be exact, vs. 186 for Boston.

The Red Sox won the season series 9-4, but it’s the playoffs now. Give me the Yankees here.

Reds at Dodgers

Under 7 (-105 Bet365)

I just don’t see much scoring in this one. I know the Dodgers have some Shohei Ohtani guy who can really, really hit. But as a team, they have a 109 wRC+ since the All-Star break, which is very good of course, but not outstanding.

They’ll face Reds ace Hunter Greene who’s an ace when healthy, as he has a 2.76 ERA and 0.94 WHIP this season. We can say the same about Dodgers starter Blake Snell with his 2.35 ERA in his 61.1 IP. In his last 3 starts he’s allowed just 1 earned run, 9 hits, and 4 BBs over 19 IP.

Walks are ostensibly an issue for Snell, but it's just the way he approaches his craft as he’s of the mindset that he’d rather issue some extra free passes than give in. And the Reds do not have a lineup that is likely to punish him for that. They’ve slugged .381 since the ASB, 4th worst in the league. They’re here mostly because the Mets laid an egg as they went just 33-32 over that span.

Credit to the Reds of course for nabbing the last spot, but it's almost entirely thanks to their pitching. I’m playing this game with the Under and crossing my fingers the Dodgers will work around their leaky bullpen, as they can now use excellent starters Emmett Sheehan and maybe even Tyler Glasnow as relievers.