History says the NBA Champion will be the Finals Game 4 winner

By the end of Game 4 of the NBA Finals on Friday night in Miami, we’ll know who will be hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy. It won’t have anything to do with the Denver Nuggets having a possible 3-1 series lead, or if the Heat have stormed back to tie the series at 2-2 before things shift back to Colorado. It’ll be because that’s what the record books tell us. Since 2000, the winner of Game 4 is 18-5 when it comes to winning it all. So as important as Games 5, 6, and 7 could be, Friday night is all that matters.

After a Game 1 performance in which Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray made history by joining Magic Johnson and James Worthy as the only teammates to score 25-plus points and dish out 10-plus assists in NBA Finals history, the duo upped the ante on Wednesday. Jokic and Murray became the first teammates to ever have 30-point triple-doubles in the same game in league history. The rightful MVP — Jokic — finished with 32 points, 21 rebounds, and 10 assists, while Murray had 34 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists.

The win puts the outcome of the series in the Nuggets’ favor, as teams that win Game 3 of any Finals series tied 1-1 go on to win it all 80 percent of the time. But, as impressive as that stat is, Game 4 is still going to be the deciding factor.

Let’s take a look. Here’s how the Game 4 winners have panned out since 2000:

2000: Los Angeles Lakers over the Indiana Pacers — Lakers won in 6 games

2001: Los Angeles Lakers over the Philadelphia 76ers — Lakers won in 5 games

2002: Los Angeles Lakers over the New Jersey Nets — Lakers won in 4 games

2003: New Jersey Nets over the San Antonio Spurs — Spurs won in 6 games

2004: Detroit Pistons over the Los Angeles Lakers — Pistons won in 5 games

2005: Detroit Pistons over the San Antonio Spurs — Spurs won in 7 games

2006: Miami Heat over the Dallas Mavericks — Heat won in 6 games

2007: San Antonio Spurs over the Cleveland Cavaliers — Spurs won in 4 games

2008: Boston Celtics over the Los Angeles Lakers — Celtics won in 6 games

2009: Los Angeles Lakers over the Orlando Magic — Lakers won in 5 games

2010: Boston Celtics over the Los Angeles Lakers — Lakers won in 7 games

2011: Dallas Mavericks over the Miami Heat — Mavericks won in 6 games

2012: Miami Heat over the Oklahoma City Thunder — Heat won in 5 games

2013: Miami Heat over the San Antonio Spurs — Heat won in 7 games

2014: San Antonio Spurs over the Miami Heat — Spurs won in 5 games

2015: Golden State Warriors over the Cleveland Cavaliers — Warriors won in 6 games

2016: Golden State Warriors over the Cleveland Cavaliers — Cavaliers won in 7 games

2017: Cleveland Cavaliers over the Golden State Warriors — Warriors won in 5 games

2018: Golden State Warriors over the Cleveland Cavaliers — Warriors won in 4 games

2019: Toronto Raptors over the Golden State Warriors — Raptors won in 6 games

2020: Los Angeles Lakers over the Miami Heat — Lakers won in 6 games

2021: Milwaukee Bucks over the Phoenix Suns — Bucks won in 6 games

2022: Golden State Warriors over the Boston Celtics — Warriors won in 6 games

In that same time frame, there have been three sweeps in the Finals — Lakers over the Nets in 2002, Spurs over the Cavs in 2007, and Warriors over the Cavs in 2018. And the five teams that didn’t claim a championship after winning the pivotal Game 4 were the 2003 Nets, 2005 Pistons, 2010 Celtics, 2016 Warriors, and the 2017 Cavs.

The way this series is going, it could be over in five games, or get extended to seven. But regardless of when it ends, history has proven that whoever wins on Friday will more than likely be the last team standing.