One game into each NBA postseason series feels like a good time to make some premature, bold declarations. The postseason tipped off with a fury of finishes that ranged from exciting to anesthesia. But Game 1 is a starter kit that we’ll try to extrapolate on. It would be wise to tread carefully in the playoff marathon and heed caution, but that’s boring. Here are some early assumptions that could be made after the weekend slate of playoff openers.
“Deandre Ayton is Phoenix’s weakest link against Clippers”
The Clippers didn’t shoot especially well without Paul George in the lineup alongside Kawhi Leonard, but they picked up the slack elsewhere by outworking Phoenix to the offensive boards 15 to 6. This may be the last real shot at a title for Chris Paul and Kevin Durant, but Suns center Deandre Ayton operates with the urgency of a DMV employee. Russell Westbrook threw himself around the court collecting offensive board after offensive board while Ayton could only watch. Westbrook was his usual self, chasing bad shots and going 3-for-19 from the field, but he was a human adrenaline shot, soaring into the paint to collect six of his teammates’ bricks, and making a game-winning play on the defensive end against Devin Booker.
If Ayton could channel some of the resentment he reserved for the Suns for waiting to match his contract into his effort, Phoenix would be up 1-0 in this series, and picking him over Luka Dončić wouldn’t be such a sore spot for the Suns. Instead, he’s a skilled, but listless big who allowed Phoenix to get dominated on the glass by both Westbrook and Ivica Zubac. Ayton scored a placid 18 points, but if he can’t utilize his size on the boards, this could be the Suns’ second consecutive loss in a playoff series they should have won.
“It’s the Tyus Jones series now” and “L.A. has a Big 3”
The momentum seesawed dramatically from Los Angeles to Memphis during a short span of time in the Lakers’ season-opening win. Just before halftime, Anthony Davis collided with Jaren Jackson Jr. and lost feeling in his right arm. Fortunately, it was just a stinger, and per usual, Davis re-emerged for the second half. Then, mere minutes into the second half, Ja Morant crashed to the floor, braced himself with his right hand, and then disappeared into the tunnel. Backup point guard Tyus Jones could make a case for being the league’s best understudy at the position, but Morant is everything for Memphis. Morant’s availability for Game 2 is in question as he was reportedly still in pain. The fate of Memphis’s season likely rests in Jones’ hands in the interim.
In games, Morant has missed this season, Jones has averaged 16.8 points alongside 8.2 assists, and he’s had plenty of practice as well. This is Jones’ team until further notice.
While we’re making overreactions, this is no longer the AD-LeBron Lakers. Austin Reaves deserves consideration on the marquee. (Probably not yet, but it’s worth contemplating.)
“Harden’s aging fast”
Despite an off night from Joel Embiid, the Sixers made mincemeat of the Nets’ non-existent defense. All those dimes stolen from in Philadelphia this week were apparently found by James Harden, who handed off 13 assists in the Sixers’ Game 1 win. This should be a quick series if Embiid wakes up from his slump, but Harden is Doc Rivers’ secondary focus. Harden was vital in non-Embiid minutes keeping the offense afloat whenever The Process needed a breather. Inside the arc though, there is some cause for concern. Harden can get away with shooting 1-for-8 against the Brooklyn Nets, but his diminished athleticism, and burst is becoming noticeable.
“Miami’s offense took a playoff stimulant”
All those concerns over Milwaukee getting stuck with the Miami Heat in the first round were justified. The Heat aren’t your typical 8-seed. They’re more primetime-ready than any 8th seed the Eastern Conference has had in decades. Even before Giannis Antetokounmpo removed himself in the first quarter, Miami obliterated Milwaukee on the scoreboard. After four quarters of their playoff opener, the league’s lowest-scoring offense generated 130 points. Miami still needs three more wins, but they now have the home-court advantage in this series. Unfortunately, they also lost Tyler Herro to a broken hand.
“Trae Young is why the Hawks can’t get past the first round anymore”
For the second consecutive postseason, Trae Young is getting scraped off the floor after getting run over by a smothering defense. Last season, it was the Miami Heat in the first round. On Saturday, Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, and Marcus Smart were his Celtic executioners, but Young is in the midst of one of the worst shooting streaks in playoff history. The cylinder has gone into Witness Protection for Young, who can’t find the bottom of the net. In his last seven playoff games, Young is shooting 8-for-49 from distance. During that time Young has logged 15.3 points, shooting below 30 percent from the field, and 16.3 percent on triples. Those whispers about jettisoning Young are only going to grow stronger.
“Evan Mobley has to get past his playoff butterflies”
Evan Mobley’s half of Cleveland’s fee-fi-fo-fum duo coughed up a dud in Game 1. Jarrett Allen delivered for the most part, but expectations for Mobley are high. He is arguably the second-most important piece on Cleveland but seemed unprepared for the playoff physicality. While Donovan Mitchell was heating up from all over the floor, Mobley was a deer in headlights. Mobley shot just 4-for-12 in the paint, then lost track of Knicks forward Julius Randle when he came barrelling in to collect a critical offensive rebound that effectively doomed Cleveland. Mental mistakes like that can’t continue to occur.
“The Warriors have no answers for De’Aaron Fox (and Malik Monk)”
Golden State has no answer for De’Aaron Fox and that’s especially true in crunch time when the Kings’ All-Star point guard flourishes. Fox was able to infiltrate the paint for more field goals than all but three bigs and his 38 points trailed only Luka Doncic for the most points in a player’s postseason debut. He also made 4-of-8 attempts from deep. The Warriors haven’t found a fix for Fox all season. He averaged 25 and eight assists against them this season, getting to the paint at will, and making tough shots. Malik Monk scored 32 points (on 61 percent field goal shooting) and will have to become a focal point of the Warriors’ defense (because surely he’ll replicate that…)
“Denver’s postseason defense is a force to be reckoned with”
Are the Nuggets the NBA’s best playoff defense after holding the Timberwolves to 80 points? Maybe the NBA community has been too harsh on Nikola Jokic’s defense. At least he’s not getting char-broiled on the level Karl Anthony-Towns is served up medium-well regularly on the defensive end. Sunday night was the latest bad look for the Gobert-Towns-Ant Timberwolves. Towns was 5-of-15 from the field and barely eclipsed double-digit scoring. Anthony Edwards tallied 18, making 6 of his 15 attempts.
There was a time this season when Denver’s defense was in the bottom fourth of the league’s teams. Over the final month, Denver was a top-10 group on that end. All hail our new defensive lord, Nikola Jokić. Maybe this defensive fourth gear is here to stay. (Although it should be noted that Minnesota’s offense has been in a depressing state of affairs all season.)